VSIN’s NFL expert offers his selections for Sunday’s divisional round matchups.

We’ve actually seen this line come down based on some Bills money, and it is hard to disagree given their season-long metrics and how dominant the defense has been. Josh Allen’s play has another gone up a few degrees now that he has gotten back to using his legs.

When these two teams met the first time, the story was all about Patrick Mahomes and his turnover problems, but the Bills also racked up 8.1 yards per play with some truly explosive plays. The Chiefs’ defense allowed points on 37.3 percent of opponents’ possessions this season, while the Bills led the league at just 28 percent. Buffalo’s strength of schedule was certainly weaker, but Buffalo was 0.4 yards per play better than any other defense in the league.

Both teams are peaking at the right time. This game probably comes down to the team that has the ball last or some kind of special teams blunder. Buffalo is the more efficient red-zone team on offense and defense, the team that does a better job of getting pressure, the better third-down defense, and had a much stronger performance last week given the opponent.

Pick: Bills, +1.5

Offensive line injuries are the big story for the Buccaneers in Sunday’s matinee against the Rams. Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs are huge pieces of the puzzle even when not facing off against Von Miller and Aaron Donald, but given the personnel for the Rams, those guys take on even greater importance.

Tom Brady should get back Leonard Fournette, and his addition to the lineup will be enormous, particularly if Brady is under duress more than usual with the standouts on the Los Angeles defense. Fournette will be a focal point and enough to create more single coverage for the wide receivers or Rob Gronkowski.

The burning question for the Rams’ offense is Matthew Stafford. He played well against Arizona in the wild-card round but wasn’t asked to do much, as he had just 17 pass attempts in a game the Rams controlled throughout. Even late in the season, though, Sean McVay opted for more Sony Michel carries. Perhaps that had to do with a lack of confidence in Stafford, but the game-plan seems to feature more of a run-pass mix than what we saw over the course of the season.

Will a ball control style work against the Buccaneers, who are quite skilled at doing that themselves? Are we just going to end up with a lot of long drives in this game and a coin flip based on the team that has more red zone success? That would be my guess and that type of game favors the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay was second in the NFL in touchdown efficiency in the red zone. The Rams were 15th. Odell Beckham Jr. has helped the cause, and most of his touchdown catches have been inside the 10, but the Buccaneers were a top-10 red zone defense. So were the Rams, but Tampa Bay’s additional offensive success might just swing the balance of this game.

The line matters a lot here. Don’t settle for Tampa Bay -3 if you can find a 2.5. Similarly, don’t take the Rams at a bad moneyline price or at 2.5 when 3 is out there.

Pick: Buccaneers, -2.5