Oh say, can you see … on the sports betting schedule … the United States Women’s National Team will finally take the pitch in the 2019 World Cup.
Unfortunately for fans and bettors, Tuesday’s game with Thailand (Fox, 3 p.m.) isn’t expected to be much of a contest. The U.S. will close as about a five-goal favorite, a massive margin you don’t often see at important soccer events. Thailand is perceived as the worst team in the tournament. Alex Morgan and company have been virtual co-favorites with host France for weeks at many sportsbooks.
Though that goal spread is a bit off the charts, the common theme in the first week of action has been big favorites dominating the flow of play. France and Brazil coasted to shutouts as favorites of two goals or more over South Korea and Jamaica respectively. Norway and Germany were laying at least -1 ¹/₂ goals on global markets and also won shutouts. Underdogs can’t win if they can’t score.
Probably the most important key for bettors hoping to find value in this tournament on underdogs or favorites is to read stat summaries rather than just watching scoreboard updates or highlight packages. Sometimes games characterized as “close” are often just as one-sided as the blowouts in terms of possession and attack.
- Germany “snuck” past China 1-0 in its opener. The media tended to focus on how China hung tough for 90 minutes and almost forced a draw. Game stats showed a rout, with Germany winning shot count 16-5, shots on goal 4-1, and corner kicks 8-3. The Germans possessed the ball 58 percent of the time. It’s very hard for an inferior team to get a result when the field is tilted to that degree.
- Supposedly vulnerable Spain had to rally from a 1-0 deficit more than two-thirds into its game with South Africa. Two late penalty kicks helped the Spaniards pull away to a 3-1 victory. Final stats show Spain winning shot count 27-5, shots on goal 12-2, and corner kicks 5-2 while holding the ball 73 percent of the time.
- Even in Italy’s buzzworthy 2-1 upset of Australia on Sunday, the shocked Matildas won shot count 17-5, shots on goal 7-3, and corner kicks 6-3 while holding the ball 57 percent of the time. Moving forward, the Aussies are still the more dangerous side.
You’ll gain a much more accurate understanding of where all teams stand through their three group games by evaluating skill sets over a variety of categories.
Some good opportunities for study the next few days when the top two power-rated teams in various groups will be squaring off:
- Wednesday: Germany vs. Spain (Fox, noon) — Group B favorites Germany should close slightly more than a half-goal favorite in global markets.
- Wednesday: France vs. Norway (Fox, 3 p.m.) — Host France will be laying between one and 1 ¹/₂ goals.
- Thursday: Australia vs. Brazil (Fox, noon) — Already a must-win game for popular “Player of the Tournament” betting choice Sam Kerr.
Early research done by smart bettors will pay off in the knockout round.
