Saturday’s NFL wild-card games present very similar handicapping challenges. Same types of matchups. Same early betting patterns. Both games are even being played in Texas.
Yesterday we talked about the similar “Drive Point” performances on offense and defense in both matchups. Let’s quickly revisit those. The numbers you see are per-game averages from the regular season for points scored and allowed only on drives of 60 yards or more. Offense listed first, defense second.
- Colts (18.6/12.3) at Texans (13.1/13.1)
- Seahawks (17.4/12.7) at Cowboys (13.8/12.6)
You can see why we said “very similar handicapping challenges.” All four teams play solid defense. Indianapolis and Seattle have the more consistently dynamic offenses. But, trying to turn that knowledge into bets is tough because oddsmakers and early sharp action have anticipated informed sentiment.
Smart money hit Indianapolis at the opener of +2 in Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m.), confident in the knowledge that +3 was very unlikely to come into play. Most stores globally centered around 1¹/₂ through the week. Houston does draw support at -1 from sharp and public money. We’ll have to see if any bandwagon support develops in either direction before kickoff.
Dallas -2 ¹/₂ was a more common opener over Seattle (Fox, 8:15 p.m.). But sharps also hit that ’dog right off the bat. Sports books that dropped to -2 continued to see a preference for Seattle. A fall to 1¹/₂ did bring in support for the home favorite. So, we’re looking at a possible sharp/square divide between Dallas -1¹/₂ and Seattle +2. It’s possible that public action on the favorite could drive that divide higher by kickoff.
If you were with us earlier this season for teaser discussions, you know that both defensive-minded road underdogs are in the strike zone for “basic strategy” bets. In teasers, you move the line at least six points in your favor in multiple games, but then you have to sweep to cash the ticket. The “basic strategy” for that proposition is to only focus on moves that cross both the key numbers of three and seven. If Saturday’s lines stay in the +1¹/₂ to +2¹/₂ window, you can move both of those up to +7¹/₂ to +8¹/₂ .
In short, sharps like Indianapolis at +1¹/₂ or better and will love using the Colts in teasers at +7¹/₂ or higher. Sharps like Seattle at +2 or better and will love using the Seahawks in teasers that cross both the three and seven. (Experienced teaser bettors also will link these with the Chargers, who are in the same strike zone Sunday.)
Let’s quickly update our estimated “market” Power Ratings for playoff teams based on this weekend’s lines. This will help you anticipate possible point spreads in future matchups. …
- NFC: Saints 87, Rams 87, Bears 84, Seahawks 83, Cowboys 82, Eagles 81.
- AFC: Chiefs 87, Patriots 85, Chargers 83, Ravens 83, Colts 83, Texans 82.
Back Sunday to look at sharp betting in Chargers-Ravens and Eagles-Bears.



