Though it took a while for the college football bowl bonanza to get rolling, the much-anticipated national semifinals are upon us.
Let’s study the market and a few key stats. We’ll look at national rankings on offense and defense, strength of schedule as ranked by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today, and turnover margin.
LSU (-13¹/₂) vs. Oklahoma, 4 p.m., ESPN
LSU: 1st offense, 22nd defense, 10th schedule, +8 turnover margin.
Oklahoma: 2nd offense, 25th defense, 24th schedule, -7 turnover margin.
It’s hard to understand why this point spread is so high until you get to turnover margin. LSU played clean against a very tough schedule in the nation’s best conference. Oklahoma was mistake-prone and erratic against a slightly softer slate.
LSU’s pro-style offense, led by Heisman Trophy winner and projected No. 1-overall NFL draft pick Joe Burrow, will move the ball and score, and it will likely turn any OU miscues into bonus touchdowns.
As VSiN reported when bowl openers first went up, an early line of LSU -11 was bet hard up to -13 right off the bat. It subsequently rose to -14 after news broke of player suspensions for Oklahoma. Dog lovers took a big bite of +14, which dropped the line to 13.5 entering the week. Sharps clearly like LSU at -13 or less, but the percentages (and bets) flip when the key number of 14 comes into play.
Picking the winner could come down to properly gauging Oklahoma’s turnover issues. The Sooners can cover if they play relatively clean. If not, the Tigers will run away and hide, as they did vs. Georgia (37-10) and Texas A&M (50-7) in their last two tests vs. bowl-caliber opponents.
Clemson (-2) vs. Ohio State, 8 p.m., ESPN
Ohio State: 5th offense, 2nd defense, 18th schedule, +11 turnover margin.
Clemson: 3rd offense, 1st defense, 61st schedule +14 turnover margin.
The big mystery here is how much of a factor Clemson’s soft schedule played in shaping the defending national champions’ dominant season. Clemson has earned the benefit of the doubt. For now.
Sharps immediately bet Clemson up from an opener of -1 to -2. And, that was after prior media discussion that Ohio State might open as a small favorite. Certainly the Buckeyes would get pounded were the public to drive the line up to Clemson -3. But, given OSU’s national profile, recreational bettors could just as easily move the number back toward pick ’em.
Given team quality, it’s basically a national championship-caliber matchup in itself, with the winner having to do it all again Jan. 13 in the Superdome, probably versus LSU.
LSU tops William Hill’s futures boards to win the playoff because it has the easier road. Current odds: LSU 6/5 (45 percent), Clemson 11/5 (31 percent), Ohio State 13/5 (28 percent), Oklahoma 14/1 (7 percent). Those percentage equivalents add up to 111 percent because sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge.
Note that the Ohio State-Clemson half of the bracket adds up to 59 percent, the LSU-Oklahoma half just 52 percent.
