As the much-anticipated Houston Astros-New York Yankees series continues this weekend at the Stadium, bettors should already be thinking about starting pitching outlooks for the postseason.
Houston and New York are virtual locks to make the playoffs given their great starts to 2019 and talent depth. William Hill currently has the Yankees at -200 to win the American League East (risk $200 to win $100, or anything in that ratio), and the Bronx Bombers don’t have to win the division to make the playoffs. Houston is -9000 to win the West (risk $9,000 just to win $100).
Do they both have rotations capable of winning in October? Let’s see how they stack up so far using season-to-date ERA (earned runs allowed per nine innings) and WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning). Stats below were entering the Astros-Yankees series:
- Astros: Justin Verlander 2.59 ERA, 0.743 WHIP, Wade Miley 3.30 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, Gerrit Cole 3.54 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, Brad Peacock 3.67 ERA, 1.118 WHIP.
That’s just four starters. The fifth spot in the rotation has been a relative disaster this season with Collin McHugh and Corbin Martin both struggling badly. Houston hopes Framber Valdez, who started Thursday night, can provide an answer. Of course, in the playoffs, you don’t need a fifth starter.
Clearly a quality quartet will get the bulk of October innings for the Astros.
- Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka 3.23 ERA, 1.098 WHIP; Domingo German 3.86 ERA, 1.114 WHIP; James Paxton 3.93 ERA, 1.309 WHIP; C.C. Sabathia 4.14 ERA, 1.365 WHIP; J.A. Happ 4.59 ERA, 1.207 WHIP.
The big question mark here is projected ace Luis Severino. He’s currently expected to return in late July or early August. Stick him on the Yankees’ list with last year’s stats of 3.39 and 1.145, and the rotation compares more favorably to Houston’s.
On deck, the next question mark is German. He’s not yet close to returning from a hip-flexor issue. And, even if he’s able to come back, German could regress from 3.87 and 1.114 to something closer to last season’s 5.57 and 1.331.
Conversely, Paxton is capable of performing at a higher level than he’s shown so far in 2019. In his prior two seasons as a Mariner, his ERA was 3.40, his WHIP 1.101.
Houston’s rotation is ready for the playoffs to start right now. It’s amazing the Yankees have played at a championship level this season with so many star players out of the lineup. A “best-case rotation scenario” of a healthy Severino, a consistent Tanaka, an improved Paxton and a healthy German could make the Yankees the team to beat in October.
For now, here are current market championship expectations: Houston is 9/5 (+190) to win the American League according to William Hill (risk $100 to win $190, or anything in that ratio), the Yankees 13/5 (+260). Houston is 4/1 (+400) to win the World Series, the Yankees 11/2 (+550).
