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The new era of college football has brought with it many surprises, but I don’t think anybody saw this coming from Indiana and Illinois.

The Hoosiers stunned everybody by getting into the College Football Playoff in 2024, while the Illini were not that far behind with a 10-3 record.

Both teams are off to 3-0 starts in 2025.

That will change on Saturday night, however, as No. 19 Indiana hosts No. 9 Illinois at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington.

This is a really interesting game to handicap. On the surface, you’d think that bettors would be siding with the Illini as an underdog in what seems like a battle between evenly-matched teams.

But that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Indiana opened around -4.5 for this game earlier in the week, but money has come in on the Hoosiers to boost this number to -6.5, signaling that sharps believe that the Hoosiers could be underrated (again) and the Illini could be overrated.

A lot of that sentiment seems to stem from Illinois’ 45-19 win over Duke. Wait, what?

You read that right. There is a lot of skepticism in the betting market about that result because the Illini benefited from a plus-4 turnover margin. The numbers from that game were pretty even, but Illinois was able to rout the Blue Devils thanks to their good fortune.

I get trying to keep a team’s outlook in check after a smoke-and-mirrors win, but I’m a bit unsure why we’re punishing Illinois for a win over a decent outfit when Indiana has yet to play anybody of note this season.

That isn’t to take anything away from Indiana, which looks like a potential gatecrasher again this season, but it is a bit odd how this market has shifted through the week. It’s all well and good to make the Hoosiers the favorite, but the difference between these two teams is not this wide.

I’ll take the points in what should be a close contest.

The Play: Illinois (+6.5, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.