New York native Vinny Magliulo is a VSiN oddsmaker and the sports book director for Gaughan Gaming in Las Vegas. He attended St. Anthony’s High School (then in Smithtown), before moving to Vegas 40 years ago to pursue a career that included running the sports books at Caesars Palace and Wynn Las Vegas. Catch Vinny with Brent Musburger on “My Guys in the Desert,” weekdays from 6 to 8 p.m. on VSiN.com and SiriusXM 204.
Here’s a scenario: It’s early October, and a Power 5 school with two losses goes on the road to play an undefeated conference opponent. The visiting team is unranked in both the AP and Coaches polls while the home team is ranked 20th and 18th, respectively. The road team is favored by three points. Now here’s a question my colleagues and I get quite often: “How can a team with multiple losses be favored over a team that’s undefeated, especially when the team favored is on the road and unranked?”
While this scenario — taken from the 2017 Stanford-Utah game — can play out in any conference during any week, the answer is this: The point spread is not predicated on a poll ranking. It is derived from various factors, the first being the team’s Power Ranking, which is a numerical value we apply to each team. This rating is evaluated and, if warranted, adjusted from game to game also depending on several factors, including scheduling and results.
Here is my opening Top 25 compared to the AP and Coaches polls:
Top 25 Comparison
Team Vinny AP Coaches
Alabama 1 1 1
Clemson 2 2 2
Ohio St. 3 5 3
Georgia 4 3 4
Auburn 5 9 10
Washington 6 6 6
Michigan 7 14 14
Oklahoma 8 7 5
Wisconsin 9 4 7
Penn St. 10 10 9
Miss. St. 11 18 18
Michigan St. 12 11 12
Miami 13 8 8
Texas 14 23 21
Florida St. 15 19 19
Stanford 16 13 13
Notre Dame 17 12 11
Okla. St. 18 NR 25
Oregon 19 24 NR
USC 20 15 15
TCU 21 16 16
Texas A&M 22 NR NR
Va. Tech 23 20 17
LSU 24 25 24
Kansas St. 25 NR NR
Note that in some slots the positioning is the same or close. Additionally, my rankings will not be identical with those of some of my colleagues. This is not a critique of the polls by any means. But I can assure you of this: When I post a price, it doesn’t matter where a team sits in the polls. What matters to me is where they are in my ratings. And while I know a few bookies who write or coach, I don’t know any writers or coaches who book!
Q: I’m a die-hard Yankees fan and have been getting killed betting on them! Any thoughts please? — Nick, Staten Island
Vinny: The travails of being a fan. I hear this plenty of times, Nicholas! I don’t typically advise people on who to bet or not bet. I do, however, try to educate folks on what to pay attention to. In the case of your beloved Yanks, let’s use the sample of July 20 through Aug. 15: In those 25 games, they were favored in all but one and you paid a premium, an average price of -215. They went 13-12 in that span while playing seven teams, five with losing records. Here’s the betting reality: You must pick your spots and sometimes go against your team. Either that, or simply pass on them. As with all sports, especially baseball where a money-line is the predominant price of choice, you’ve got to go with underdogs sometimes if you want to come out ahead in the long term. It’s great to be a fan, but make sure your bankroll is your favorite team.
Q: I am a two- to four-team baseball parlay bettor. I also am a “favorite” guy, so I find myself betting parlays with big numbers due to the teams. I heard you can play the run line to the Over in parlays in Vegas in places. Is that true? So instead of playing a four-teamer Yanks -275 and Over 9 with Red Sox -300 and Over 10, I could play the two teams laying the 1.5 runs to the game totals Over? — Jimmy Kane, New York
Vinny: Thanks, Jimmy. In your example, you’ll still be laying a price on the run lines, but certainly less than on the money lines. As I mentioned in an earlier column, correlation parlays such as these are not offered in all locations. If that’s your preference and you find a place that offers them, go for it!
Q: When is the best time to bet NFL win totals, and what’s the number on my Bengals? — Graham, Lexington, Ky.
Vinny: Let me tell you how professionals approach these propositions: The South Point posted NFL season win totals on May 1 and we put the word out in advance through VSiN. With the date known, pros put their projections together and on May 1 came in and compared their numbers to ours. If they saw a difference, they fired away! As for your Bengals, they opened at 7 and now sit at 7 Under -120, so a bit more Under play on them overall.



