Two games into the second-round NHL series matching the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes, and sharp enthusiasm for the Isles has not been rewarded.
- In Game 1, New York was bet up from an opener of -120 on the money line to as high as -140 or -145 (depending on the store) in what would ultimately be a 1-0 overtime loss.
- In Game 2, New York was bet up from -140 to as high as -155 or -160 in the bounce-back spot. Another low-scoring loss, as the Isles fell 2-1.
Those large line moves were due to a mix of sharp and square (public) support. The Islanders impressed in a first-round sweep of Pittsburgh, while Carolina was expected to be tired after going seven games with Washington. Everyone wanted the fresher team in Game 1 as a cheap favorite. Everyone wanted the bounce-back team at home in Game 2.
Sports books are grateful!
What will bettors do now? Frankly, Carolina did play a bit tired in the two games at Barclays Center (where crowd noise just isn’t the same as at Nassau Coliseum). The Hurricanes couldn’t score a goal in regulation in the opener. Then they hung on for dear life Sunday as the Islanders controlled flow of play.
Check out these stats from respected hockey analytics website Natural Stat Trick:
- High-danger scoring chances: Islanders led 15-9 in Game 1, 14-6 in Game 2 (for a total of 29-15 in two losses).
- Expected goals: Islanders led 2.94 to 2.09 in Game 1, 2.68 to 1.78 in Game 2 (for a total edge of 5.62 to 3.87).
The Islanders easily could be leading this series two games to none. They’re not finding the back of the net with opportunities they create. Carolina didn’t just win a couple of coin flips. It won both flips against weighted coins!
That backdrop will create additional wagering sentiment for the Islanders in Game 3. Their backs are to the wall as they enjoy more influence over flow of play. They still have the best defense in the NHL (No. 1 in fewest goals against during the regular season, then only eight goals allowed in regulation though six playoff games). They still have less-weary playoff legs. Carolina will be dealing with injuries.
What about the series? Though perceived as the superior side initially, the Islanders are now a big long shot to advance. They have to win four of the next five games lacking the kind of explosive offense that can create easy wins (five of six Islanders’ playoff games have stayed below the market Over/Under). Can New York win four out of five grinders when three will be on the road?
Anything is possible in hockey. But, the percentages favor Carolina getting to four wins faster because of this two-game head start. New York can tweak the percentages by breaking serve Wednesday night. The Islanders need at least two service breaks and at least one home victory to advance.
