After a long layoff, the New York Islanders finally begin NHL second-round action Friday night versus the Carolina Hurricanes.
Handicappers and bettors must determine if that layoff brings the Islanders in fresh, or rusty. Carolina clearly will be tired, with just a day to recover from Wednesday night’s dramatic double-overtime road victory to advance past defending Stanley Cup champion Washington.
You probably know Islanders home games in this series will be played at Barclays Center rather than in Nassau Coliseum. Sharps will be watching game atmosphere closely Friday night to see if a projection adjustment must be made. The Isles responded very well to a boisterous first-round home crowd. Will the atmosphere be the same at a less cozy site?
Here’s a quick recap of key stats from the regular season:
Category CAR Rank NYI Rank
Goals for 2.96 16th 2.72 22nd
Goals against 2.70 7th 2.33 1st
The Islanders played even better defense against Pittsburgh. After allowing three goals to the Penguins in the series opener (a 4-3 overtime victory), the Islanders allowed only one goal per game the rest of the way. That’s 1.5 goals against for the first round.
The Islanders offense was more impressive than their regular season ranking would have suggested. The Isles scored three, three, four and three in regulation, creating opportunities and cashing in. As we reported during the series, the Islanders were winning key analytics stats at a rate commensurate with the scoreboard (according to naturalstattrick.com).
Betting markets were slow to accept that the Isles were outplaying Pittsburgh. The “better team in game stats” was a +170 underdog in Game 3, and a +150 underdog in Game 4.
It’s likely the Isles will get more respect from this point forward. Sharps love betting defense in all sports. And, Islanders coach Barry Trotz made believers out of skeptics with that sweep of Pittsburgh. Maybe he didn’t get enough credit for leading the Capitals to last year’s Stanley Cup.
Can he lead this year’s Islanders that far? Futures markets say it’s a strong “maybe.”
Entering the second round, they were giving the Boston Bruins a slight nod over a tight field. In a hypothetical eight-team contest featuring dead-even teams, no home ice, and no house edge for sportsbooks, everyone would be 7/1 to win. When the first round finished, a global composite showed Boston at 4/1, San Jose at 11/2, followed by the Islanders and Blues at 6/1.
Not quite an eight-way coin flip. Great defense, home ice in the second round — and in the finals against any Western entry — are nice things for the Islanders to have in their back pockets.
VSiN looks forward to covering the rest of the Islanders’ trek through the 2019 playoffs from a market perspective. That plus plenty of NBA playoff and MLB betting tips in the coming days.
