After a “shock the nation” season, the Islanders begin their 2019 Stanley Cup playoff campaign Wednesday night at home against the Penguins (MSG+, 7:30 p.m.).
The Islanders were a big long shot to make the playoffs before the season began. VSiN hockey consultant Andy MacNeil reports the Westgate priced “No” to make the playoffs at a whopping -300 (risk $30 to win $10, or anything in that ratio), while “Yes” paid back at +240 (risk $10 to win $24).
You could argue the Isles were the biggest surprise in the league. Tampa Bay technically topped its market projection by the most points (+20.5 , using opening Westgate numbers). But, that was just the obvious “best team” being even better than expected. It wasn’t a surprise that the Lightning were lethal. The Islanders (+19.5 points) stunned observers.
They will have to keep pulling surprises to advance through the playoffs. Despite owning home-ice advantage, the Islanders are underdogs to push past the Penguins. Pittsburgh is -145 to win the best-of-seven series at William Hill sports books in New Jersey. A bet on the Isles to advance would pay +125.
In Wednesday’s opening game, William Hill has the Islanders slightly favored at -115 to the Penguins’ -105. You should expect a similar line for all the Isles’ home games in this series. Pittsburgh will a pricey home favorite in Games 3, 4 and 6 (if necessary). That’s why the Penguins are a series favorite without home ice. The games in New York are seen as coin flips that are likely to split out. Pittsburgh is expected to dominate at home.
Here were the market prices for regular-season meetings between the Penguins and Islanders (according to covers.com):
- Oct. 30 at Pittsburgh: Isles (+175) won, 6-3
- Nov. 1 at Barclays: Isles (+140) won, 3-2, in shootout
- Dec. 6 at Pittsburgh: Pens (-210) won, 6-2
- Dec. 10 at Coliseum: Pen (-135) won, 2-1, in shootout
It’s a competitive matchup. But, the teams haven’t played each other in four months! You can see that the market has lifted its perception of the Islanders in that interval.
On the futures board to win the Stanley Cup, the Islanders are tied for the biggest long shot at 35/1 with Carolina and Colorado. Here’s a quick look at the latest from William Hill.
- Favorite: Tampa Bay 12/5 (+240)
- Serious threats: San Jose 8/1, Vegas 17/2 (+850), St. Louis 9/1, Calgary and Boston both 10/1, Washington 11/1, Nashville 13/1, Pittsburgh and Winnipeg both 16/1.
- Long shots: Toronto 20/1, Columbus and Dallas both 30/1, Colorado, Carolina and the Islanders all at 35/1.
Can the Islanders keep surprising what appears to be a still-skeptical market? We just saw defense win another championship in the NCAA basketball tournament. The Islanders had the best defense in the league this season, allowing a paltry 2.33 goals per game.
In the NHL playoffs, anything can happen!
