We think they’ve got the wrong favorite in the Bengals-Colts game. It’s great that Andrew Luck is back; he is one of the best in the game. But this line is an overreaction, because the Colts still have to stop somebody.

Andy Dalton still has his wingman A.J. Green, running back Joe Mixon can catch passes, and tight end Tyler Eifert is looking to get back to his old self. A year ago, the Bengals beat the Luck-less Colts, 24-23, as a 10½-point favorite. I don’t see this game having a 13-point swing.

The play: Bengals +3. They won’t just cover, but are worth +140 on the money line to win outright.