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The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers are headed in completely different directions.
The visiting Jazz are on a six-game win streak while the Lakers are hoping to get back in the win column after losing three straight, including four out of their last five.
While the Lakers were competitive against the Warriors, the close nature of that game felt more indicative of the current state of the Warriors, who were missing Draymond Green and appear tired headed into the NBA All-Star break after losing three of their last four games.
While the Warriors have seen their top-ranked defensive rating (105.6) slip to 23rd the last few weeks (116.9), the Jazz have improved over the last two weeks and are third in defensive rating, allowing just 102.6 points per 100 possessions.
Rudy Gobert USA TODAY SportsThe Jazz have welcomed the return of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, and are scoring 124.6 points per 100 possessions, first among NBA teams over this span.
The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but this simply isn’t a good team, and the Jazz have advantages all over the floor — particularly in the half court, where they have the league’s top-ranked offensive rating (100.8) and are facing a Lakers defense that’s 17th (95.3).
The Lakers are 24th in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim (66.2 percent), an area where the Jazz are second in shooting (70 percent). The Lakers will also struggle to keep up with the Jazz’s 3-point attack and should have a major math problem here given that the Jazz are shooting a league-leading 43.4 percent of their field goals from behind the arc and making the sixth-most (35.2 percent).
The Lakers are just 22nd in offensive rating (109.7), and lineups with James and Davis are scoring only 108.1 points per 100 possessions, which is in the 22nd-percentile among two-man lineups this season. Making matters worse, the Lakers are being outscored by 2.7 points per 100 possessions with their two stars on the floor.
My model makes this game Jazz -6.5, so at -3.5, this line is short. I’ll lay the points with the Jazz by taking them to cover the full game and first half as they should head into the All-Star break flying high with their seventh straight win.
The pick: Jazz -3.5
