Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his third season with the Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly. Home team in CAPS

We thought we were going to have to go into how NFL underdogs of 20-plus points are 10-3 (77 percent) against the spread. However, sharp bettors already know that it’s an automatic play to take plus-20 on any given Sunday and bet this down from an advance line of 21, or even a little higher(it also helped that the Jets covered vs. the Bills this past Sunday). But NFL ’dogs of 17 or more points are still 22-14-1 (61 percent) ATS since 1991. I know critics will say the Chiefs are great and the Jets are terrible, but, believe me, everyone was saying similar things in all those other matchups, as that’s what it takes for an NFL spread to be this high, yet parity still exists, and the ’dogs keep covering these huge numbers.

The Patriots have lost two straight to drop to 2-4 and looked ugly doing it, to the point that Cam Newton is even doubting his superpowers and people are openly siding with Tom Brady over Bill Belichick as the straw that stirred the New England dynasty. However, the AFC East still goes through the Patriots, and the Bills have to show they’re truly ready to take the division crown by knocking can knock out the champ. Besides, the Bills didn’t look like world-beaters in defeating the lowly Jets just 18-10. And if you excuse the Bills for that performance by saying they were looking ahead to this game, then you have to give the same benefit of the doubt to Belichick & Co.

Last week: 1-1, Panthers (W), Broncos (L).
2020 season: 6-7-1.