LAS VEGAS — Of all the unexpected storylines to emerge from the NFL draft, the imminent end of the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay is worthy of a cover story.
With the window closing on Rodgers’ pursuit of a second Super Bowl, the Packers seemed to hit their 36-year-old quarterback from his blind side by using a first-round pick on his replacement. The clock is ticking on Rodgers, and if he did not know it last week, he does now.
The Packers traded up in the first round to take Utah State’s Jordan Love, who will be developed as the team’s quarterback of the future, sooner or later.
William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich was baffled by the move, saying, “If you are drafting Love, you should have a conversation with Rodgers and say, ‘How much do you have left? Is it two years or five years? What’s your plan?’ If he plans on playing five more years, get him some help you can win with this year.”
The Packers won 13 games last year, tied with the 49ers and Saints for most in the NFC. The William Hill futures board now shows five teams — San Francisco (+325), New Orleans (11/2), Dallas and Tampa Bay (each 6/1), Seattle (17/2) — with better odds to win the conference than Green Bay (9/1).
Rodgers wanted wide receiver help. Thirty-six wideouts were selected, tied for the most in draft history through seven rounds, but Green Bay drafted none. In the second round, the Packers took Boston College running back AJ Dillon. The Dillon pick did not fill an immediate need, either, considering Aaron Jones is returning after rushing for 1,084 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett was so unimpressed with the Packers’ draft class that he raised their Super Bowl odds from 17/1 to 20/1.
“The first two picks don’t really improve the Packers for this year, in my opinion,” Bennett said. “I went through all of our NFL futures and tweaked a bunch of things. The biggest Super Bowl odds move was the Packers.”
Draft results seldom shake up the Super Bowl odds board. The top contenders add talent as anticipated and typically stay put. Rarely does a team like Green Bay move the wrong way.
The Packers’ season win total of 9 was priced Over -120 at William Hill last week and is shaded Under -120 at Circa this week. It’s more than a subtle hint that oddsmakers are expecting Green Bay to regress from 13-3 last year to either 9-7 or 8-8 in 2020, assuming there’s a 16-game season.
The league’s bottom-feeders pick higher in the draft and have more room for improvement. Along those lines, William Hill made minor boosts in the win total prices for Carolina (5½, -110) and Miami (6, Over -120).
The Dolphins picked Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall and filled all sorts of needs in their 11-player class. The Panthers, rebuilding with new coach Matt Rhule, used all seven of their picks on defensive players.
“I do think both of those teams will be on the rise,” Bogdanovich said. “But there’s a big difference between getting over 5½ wins to winning a Super Bowl. It’s incremental steps.”
Arizona, which selected Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons in the first round after trading a No. 2 to Houston for star wideout DeAndre Hopkins, is making a move in the NFC West. Circa shortened the Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds (from 70/1 to 60/1) and division odds (11/1 to 8/1).
Michael Lombardi, VSiN analyst and former NFL general manager, said he’s no fan of armchair analysts and couch critics who assign grades to draft classes. He did approve of the drafts for the Broncos, Seahawks and Vikings. Lombardi recommended plays on Denver (7½) and Seattle (9½) over their win totals.
“These drafts are judged way too early,” Lombardi said. “The Patriots are not going to get an ‘A’ for their draft because everybody is obsessed that they did not draft a quarterback.”
William Hill still lists New England as the even-money favorite in the AFC East, though it’s apparent the Buffalo Bills (+140) are closing the division gap along with the Jets and Dolphins (each 7/1).
Lombardi said he liked Green Bay’s decision to plan for the future by drafting Love. Many others hated the Love pick, but those debates are part of what make the draft a magnetizing event.
“If you read all of the so-called experts and their draft grades, the Packers grade as one of the worst,” Bogdanovich said. “This probably sparks Rodgers on to another big year. He’s still damn good.”
If Rodgers takes a page from Tom Brady’s playbook and is ready to move on, New England might need a quarterback in the near future. Let the wild speculation begin.
