Could college football fans be treated to a Final Four preview during the first big weekend of the new season? That’s certainly possible when No. 6 Washington takes on No. 9 Auburn Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on ABC in a much-anticipated intersectional showdown.
The Huskies are the projected Pac-12 winner. A champion with a pre-conference win over Auburn in Atlanta would get very serious consideration for a January invitation. Auburn returns a lot of talent from a group that just missed last season, despite scoring outright victories over eventual finalists Alabama and Georgia.
The big question for handicappers and bettors in Washington-Auburn is whether the Pac-12 is once again being overrated by the markets. This is not a league that shines when challenged by quality outsiders. Two seasons ago, Washington reached the national playoff only to get squashed 24-7 by Alabama (getting out-rushed 269-44 in the process). The league didn’t even earn an invite to the Final Four last season.
It’s easy to forget in the build-up to a new campaign that the Pac-12 embarrassed itself in the bowls last postseason. Nine teams earned bids and only one was able to win its game. And that was Utah bullying a West Virginia side that had lost its starting quarterback to a late-season injury. Stanford was the only other Pac-12 entry to cover its spread, losing to TCU 39-37 as a three-point underdog.
Here were the seven non-covers, with size of the market miss in parentheses …
Market misreads of the Pac-12
- Oregon (-7) lost to Boise State, 38-28 (17)
- UCLA (+6) lost to Kansas State, 35-17 (12)
- Arizona (-2.5) lost to Purdue, 38-35 (5.5)
- Washington State. (+2.5) lost to Michigan State, 42-17 (22.5)
- Arizona St. (+4.5) lost to NC State, 52-31 (16.5)
- USC (+10) lost to Ohio State, 24-7 (7)
- Washington (+3) lost to Penn St., 35-28 (4)
Four double-digit non-covers in lesser bowls followed by USC and Washington losing by a combined 59-35 to Big 10 powers. The Pac-12’s average bowl performance was failure of 8.2 points — more than a TD per game.
Even if you don’t bet Saturday’s showcase, study Washington closely to see if the Pac-12 favorite is ready to compete for 60 minutes against an SEC power in the heart of Dixie. Too much market optimism about the Pac-12 could prove important in later September matchups such as UCLA at Oklahoma, USC at Texas, and Stanford at Notre Dame.
Speaking of Notre Dame, we’ll see you here next time to discuss the prime-time battle between the Irish and Michigan.
