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On paper, the 2022 Kentucky Derby should be wide open, and that is good news for punters who prefer to throw some money down on long shots.
Odds for a horse race are fluid, so this will change, but after the draw, there are only three horses in the field of 20 with single-digit odds: No. 10 Zandon (3-1), No. 3 Epicenter (7-2) and No. 8 Messier (8-1). The other 17 entrants are all currently sitting between 10-1 and 30-1. This truly is anyone’s race and will only become harder to call if Mother Nature gets involved.
In fact, the betting for Saturday’s Run for the Roses could shake out similarly to what we saw in 2019 when Country House was tabbed as the winner at 65-1 odds after Maximum Security (10-1) was disqualified. That field was also considered wide open, especially after Omaha Beach, who was the 4-1 morning-line favorite, was scratched.
With a 65-1 horse at the top, the payouts for the 2019 Kentucky Derby were massive. A $2 exacta paid out over $3,000, and while it’s unlikely we see something that robust this time, it’s something bettors should keep in mind with a similarly open field.
Bizarrely, one thing horseplayers will need to account for is that Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale plans to plunk down $4 million on the Derby and the horse he chooses to bet will almost certainly end up as the favorite by the time we hear “And they’re off!”
McIngvale, who is making the bet as part of a hedge against a Derby-related giveaway at his furniture stores, likely will be betting on the morning-line favorite No. 10 Zandon (3-1) or second-choice No. 3 Epicenter (7-2).
“Mattress” Mack’s shenanigans aside, the best way for casuals to play the 2022 Kentucky Derby is to take a stand with a couple of long shots and include them in your exotic wagers including exactas and trifectas. Sure, there’s a chance we see Zandon and Epicenter cross the finish line first and second to ruin your tickets, but just backing the two favorites at short odds in a wide-open field on a potentially sloppy track is not a strategy that will pay off enough times to make it viable.
Instead, bettors should find the long shot they like the most to hit the board and provide a big payout. Here are a few to consider:
No. 14 Barber Road (30-1): One of eight horses listed at 30-1 after the post-draw, Barber Road finished second in the Arkansas Stakes, third in the Rebel Stakes, and second in the Southwest Stakes. He has a chance to be in the mix at a strong number.
No. 16 Cyberknife (20-1): After a pedestrian start to his career, Brad Cox’s Cyberknife took down the Arkansas Derby in April and is seemingly peaking at the exact right time.
Cyberknife runs during Kentucky Derby morning training. Getty ImagesNo. 1 Mo Donegal (10-1): Drawing the No. 1 spot on a potentially sloppy track is not ideal, but the son of Uncle Mo has the pedigree to compete at this distance. If it’s a fast track, Mo Donegal is live and one to use in exotics with Zandon and Cyberknife.
No. 5 Smile Happy (20-1): After finishing second in back-to-back races as a favorite, Smile Happy’s odds have drifted into a good range for a horse that finished a game second to Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes down the road at Keeneland.
No. 2 Happy Jack (30-1): If you’re truly playing the “anything can happen in this type of race” angle, you could do worse than adding Happy Jack to your exotics to add some value. Boxing him with Zandon, Cyberknife or Mo Donegal if we get a fast track could add some serious value to your card.
