Week 2 of the college football season presents bettors with a fun exercise. After spending all summer trying to get a decent read on a team and how it will perform for the upcoming season, Week 1 comes along and changes everything. But should it?

Most experienced bettors will tell you that Week 2 (or Game 2) of a given season is one of their favorite spots to handicap. The working theory is that the market will typically overadjust based on a team’s season-opening performance, which allows savvy gamblers to take advantage of soft numbers.

But like anything in sports betting, it isn’t that simple. Sure, the market will overreact in some spots, but there’s also the very real possibility that what we saw out of a team in Week 1 is the start of a trend.

One team that fits that situation is Florida. After listening to the experts hype Utah as a College Football Playoff dark horse all summer, the Gators took down the Utes as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 1. It was a masterful performance by Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, who logged two explosive runs and three rushing touchdowns to lead his Gators to a 29-26 victory. Richardson’s Heisman odds were slashed in half off his riveting showing.

The look-ahead line for No. 12 Florida’s SEC opener against No. 20 Kentucky was around 4 points, depending on the sportsbook. As expected, the Gators’ performance against the Utes (in addition to some lineup issues for Kentucky) has bumped that number up to -6.

Kentucky checks into The Swamp off a 37-13 win over Miami (Ohio), in which it covered the 15-point spread. On the surface, everything checked out for the Wildcats, but their rushing attack stalled and it was the defense that led the way.

Quarterback Will Levis seemed comfortable, throwing for 303 yards and three touchdowns with one interception, but being that efficient against Florida is a much steeper task than doing so against a MAC defense.

Similarly, it would not be a surprise for Richardson to find life more difficult against a Kentucky defense that excels at stopping explosive plays and boasts one of the best tackling units in the country. As good as Richardson was on the ground against Utah, his aerial numbers didn’t leap off the page.

There’s a clear blueprint here for Kentucky. Force Richardson into passing downs and rely on the defense to keep him in check. The Wildcats have the personnel to execute that game plan, and if they do, this game would become much closer to a coin flip. That’s how the Action Network’s projection model sees the game, as we make Florida a 2-point favorite at home.

There weren’t many folks backing Florida for a big season in 2022, but the Gators turned that on its head by scoring one of the most notable results in Week 1. Now comes the hard part. Was what the Gators did against Utah a sign of things to come or is the market giving Billy Napier’s side too much love against a dangerous Kentucky team?

In a game that looks as if it could be a real grind with thin margins, there’s value on the underdog in the Swamp on Saturday at +6 points and +180 on the moneyline.

Kentucky +6, +180 (BetMGM)