Finally! It’s the battle of young quarterbacks NFL fans have been waiting for when Sam Darnold and the Jets visit Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday (CBS, 1 p.m.).
This is the second 2018 meeting between the two AFC East rivals. But both quarterbacks missed a 41-10 Buffalo victory at MetLife stadium on Nov. 11 with injuries.
Which young QB is having the better season? Stats that only focus on passing give a slight edge to Darnold:
Futures up in the air
| Category | Darnold | Allen |
| Passer rating | 68.3 | 66.3 |
| Completion pct. | 55.0 | 52.9 |
| TD/INT ratio | 11/14 | 5/7 |
Frankly, those are horrible stats. Both rank near the bottom of the NFL among starters. Only rookies get a chance to be that bad when they’re learning the ropes. The league median for passer rating is around 96. This is a high-scoring season with quarterbacks lighting up the scoreboard. Darnold and Allen lack aerial electricity.
Allen grades out as the superior 2018 quarterback when you include his legs. ESPN’s “Total QBR” factors in rushing production. It’s on a different scale than passer rating. League median is around 60:
Rush to judgment?
| Category | Darnold | Allen |
| Total QBR | 31.5 | 53.0 |
| Rushing yards | 61 | 389 |
| Rushing TDs | 1 | 4 |
In Total QBR, Allen is just a bit below average (roughly equivalent to Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott). Darnold badly trails the bulk of the league, leading only rookie Josh Rosen (30.7).
Granting struggles for both, Allen is the slightly more dynamic threat right now. That’s a big reason why Buffalo probably will be laying more than the standard value of home-field advantage Sunday. The line is expected to close around Buffalo -3¹/₂ or -3 with added vigorish on the favorite. Buffalo is 4-2-1 against the spread in the seven games Allen started, and the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in the nine games Darnold started.
Does this early start mean Allen is more likely to have the superior career? Recent history says you should be skeptical about that. Young quarterbacks who need their legs to move the ball have trouble sustaining success. They eventually suffer a knee or ankle injury that slows them down. Defenses learn their scrambling tendencies and adjust.
When you start thinking about regular-season win totals for the 2019 season, or even AFC East futures prices as Tom Brady’s career winds down, remember that Darnold is a year younger than Allen (21 vs. 22), and might benefit in the future from a head-coaching change that better advances his talent. Jared Goff looked awful under Jeff Fisher. Now he’s a shining star at age 24.
It will be fun to watch the young QBs go head-to-head on the same field. Be sure you’re thinking about the future as you try to handicap the present.
