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Altitude has always played an important role in handicapping the Nuggets and the Jazz at home.
However, there has been so much data accumulated over the years that many believe the NBA betting market already accounts for that variable.
I am not quite sure I agree with that theory.
The Jazz host the Lakers on Thursday as 7.5-point underdogs with a total of 244.5 points.
The Jazz have predictably performed much better in Salt Lake City with a 7-7 mark, compared to a 3-8 road record.
Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of 14 home games. That is among the league’s best records against the spread (ATS).
Head coach Will Hardy of the Utah Jazz looks on during the second half of a game against the Dallas Mavericks at Delta Center on December 15, 2025 in Salt Lake City, Utah. Getty ImagesAiding those strong results is the ability to dictate the pace and capitalize on an opponent struggling with the altitude. The Jazz’s offense ranks ninth in efficiency at home, compared to 29th on the road.
However, the Jazz defense is pretty pitiful across the board, ranking among the worst in efficiency, so I prefer to focus on the total. That is where I believe we find betting value, since Utah’s offense is so much more potent at home.
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In this specific matchup, the Lakers are coming off an emotional win over the Suns. Not only did they avenge an earlier loss in their previous meeting, but L.A. needed to make free throws in the final seconds. An opponent like Utah does not exactly invite excitement for opponents, and I can see the Lakers lacking intensity on defense.
I have an 81-71-2 ATS record in this Post sports section. My next play is Over 244.5 points in this showdown.
The Play: Over 244.5 points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
