The Stanley Cup will be in the building on Friday night as the Colorado Avalanche will have a chance to put an end to the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty with a win at Ball Arena in Denver. The Avs are -180 to win Game 5 and are prohibitive -1400 favorites to lift Lord Stanley after going up 3-1 in the series. 

And while Colorado’s terrific performance on the road in Game 4 makes it tempting to keep it simple and go right back to the Avs, bookmakers are clearly putting a premium on them in a potential clincher. Colorado closed at -150 in Game 1 and -144 in Game 2, but are now sitting 43 cents higher than their average closing odds for their first two home games of this best-of-7.

Recency bias certainly is playing a big role in the swing in price, but there are other factors at play, too. Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak and Brayden Point are all questionable for Tampa Bay in Game 5.

Outside of Andrei Vasilevskiy, you could make the argument that Cirelli and Cernak have been Tampa’s second and third most important players in this postseason. Cirelli has once again made a name for himself as one of the game’s best shutdown centers, while Cernak and his partner, Ryan McDonagh, are handed the toughest assignments night after night. Losing one, or both, players for an elimination game would be a huge blow for a team looking to slow down the league’s best offense.

The injuries loom large for the Bolts, but there are some positives that they can take into Game 5. It’s no secret that Tampa has been outplayed for the majority of this series — Colorado holds an 8.8 to 6.1 expected goals edge at 5-on-5 and 13.8 to 10.1 overall — but two of the games have gone to overtime, meaning the Lightning were just one shot away in two of their three losses.

Over the years the Lightning have shown themselves to be masters at hanging around in games and even though they’re down 3-1 and have been outplayed in this series, the Bolts have found ways to stick around with the juggernaut Avalanche. The job will be tougher on Friday night, but it would be foolish to act as if Game 5 will just be a coronation, especially with Andrei Vasilevski trending in the right direction for the Bolts.

From the outside, it looks like the curtains are finally about to close on the Tampa Bay Lightning. But savvy bettors know that there’s plenty of value to be found going against those kind of narratives.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.