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The Tampa Bay Lightning have turned the tables on the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. After going down 2-0 in Game 3 and facing a potential 0-3 deficit in the series, Tampa Bay has roared back to win both contests at Amalie Arena to knot the best-of-7 at two games apiece.

Despite the fact that the Rangers have a home-ice advantage in two of the possible three remaining games in this set, it is the Lightning who are now -165 favorites to win the series. 

Tampa currently sits at -130 to win Game 5, which is where they closed for Game 2. In other words, there has yet to be too much of a market reaction off of the impressive wins in Games 3 and 4. Part of the lack of movement from Game 2 to Game 5 could be chalked up to New York’s eight-game winning streak at home, so bettors could end up paying a bit of a premium at Madison Square Garden.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: TB -1.5 (+200) vs. NYR +1.5 (-250)

Moneyline: TB (-130) vs. NYR (+110)

Total: Over 5.5 +115 | Under 5.5 (-140)

While the Rangers have been much better at home, this is now the third series in a row where the Blueshirts have been out-chanced at 5-on-5. Tampa Bay and New York have played nearly 200 minutes at 5-on-5 this series, and while the Rangers have outscored the Bolts, 8-6, in that span, Tampa holds a 54-32 edge in high-danger scoring chances and a +4.26 expected goal differential.

Getting outplayed at 5-on-5 is nothing new for the Rangers, who were able to rely on their goaltending advantage and power play to beat Pittsburgh and Carolina, but the Lightning are proving to be a different beast. Not only does Tampa Bay also have one of the best goaltenders on the planet, but the Bolts’ power play can at the very least keep pace with a Rangers unit that is clipping at 32.7% this spring.

Creating offense on the power play is not an issue for the Rangers, but it’s a different story at even strength. The Blueshirts haven’t scored a 5-on-5 goal since Game 2 and have created just 11 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 over the last two games.

The job could get harder for New York on Thursday night as Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil are both questionable to play. If Strome and Chytil can’t go, that means that two of the Rangers’ top three lines will be missing their centers, and their first power-play unit will be missing a key contributor. 

With Strome and Chytil at the very least operating below 100% and the Lightning rounding into defensive form, it’s pretty easy to see how this game turns into a rock fight. 

After a slow start to the series, Andrei Vasilevskiy has found his game opposite Igor Shesterkin, who continues to play at an elite level. With the goaltending matchup looking like a blockbuster and the Rangers offense compromised, this game should be pretty tight.

That type of game environment puts value on backing the game to go beyond 60 minutes, as it’s hard to see either team running away with this one.

3-way moneyline: tie (+300) — BetMGM