Is a Super Bowl spoiler for 2019 on the field Sunday?
Though betting markets have shown great respect to bye teams such as Kansas City, New England, New Orleans, and the Rams through the regular season, it would not shock anyone to see the survivor of Sunday’s contests go deep in the championship brackets.
Here’s a look at the Sunday games:
- Chargers (+3) at Ravens (CBS, 1:05 p.m.): Sharps started showing respect for the Chargers months ago. Everyone knew Philip Rivers could sling the ball. When a rushing game and stout defense developed, this team started approaching championship material.
That’s why the Chargers opened below a field goal on the road at Baltimore, despite a “bad body clock” kickoff (10:05 a.m. PT). Oddsmakers knew sharps would take the Chargers at +3. They have covered six straight road games against a tough schedule. Sharps cashed tickets in most of those.
That said, sharps were also surprisingly optimistic midseason about Baltimore when rookie Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. Experienced bettors are usually skeptical about young quarterbacks. But a respected defense and running game were also in place here. Baltimore is 6-0-1 in regulation in Jackson’s starts, with the “tie” on the road in an eventual 27-24 overtime loss to top AFC seed Kansas City.
Informed money is backing Baltimore at -2¹/₂ this week with intensity. Not all sharps agree on every game! This has created a high-handle cash cow involving Ravens -2¹/₂ and Chargers +3 that could divide action fairly evenly depending on who the public supports in the hours before kickoff.
Whoever wins will very likely be a sharp road underdog choice next week in the Divisional round.
- Eagles (+6¹/₂) at Chicago (NBC, 4:40 p.m.): Chicago is a strong fit for the “defense wins championships” mold this season. It isn’t unheard of for ultra-elite defenses to control their destinies through the brackets even if they don’t have a great quarterback. And the Bears have covered nine of their past 10 games in a style that expresses quality and consistency.
The Eagles are the defending NFL champions and have a quarterback in Nick Foles who has proven his mettle under playoff pressure.
Betting in this game centered in the 5¹/₂ to 6 area before a burst of Bears money Friday. Chicago is a popular public choice at -6 or better. Sharp Philadelphia money was happy at +6 earlier in the week, and will keep buying at better prices if the line keeps rising. The fact that weather should be mild (by “Chicago in January” standards) also makes it easier to back the underdog. Game-time temperatures are forecast to be in the low 40s with limited wind.
If Chicago advances, its great defense will attract sharp money at projected prices next week on the road against the Rams. Philadelphia would travel to New Orleans with a win … one that would add to Foles’ playoff legacy.
Some years, wild-card weekend winners are just blowout fodder the following round for well-rested elites. Bettors should study Sunday’s action with the thought that advancers might still have the chance to cash multiple 2019 playoff tickets.
