Two of VSiN’s MLB experts take a look at Tuesday’s Yankees-Red Sox matchup from an analytical standpoint.

The biggest question in the AL wild-card game is which version of Gerrit Cole we are going to get. We all know how dominant Cole was before the crackdown on sticky stuff and his struggles have been well-documented since then, as he’s posted a 4.15 ERA with a 3.66 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) since June 3. That was the first day that MLB started really paying attention to foreign substances.

The narrative about Cole isn’t fully accurate. He still struck out 146 batters in 110 ²/₃ innings of work and allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of his 19 starts. His bar is just a lot higher than that based on his past four seasons.

It is also very much worth noting that starters don’t work as deep in playoff games because managers have a quick hook at the first sign of trouble in the middle innings. Relievers carry much more importance in these games. Cole could go out there and be dominant. If he isn’t, the reinforcements will arrive quicker than usual.

Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is a guy whose advanced metrics looked better than his traditional ones, though a 3.75 ERA is nothing to scoff at. He had a 2.79 FIP and got burned by a .326 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and a 70.4 percent loft-on-base percentage, which was pretty low given most of his metrics. The crackdown on sticky stuff didn’t seem to bother Eovaldi much, as his ERA from June 4 through the end of the season was lower than it was prior, even though his FIP was a bit higher.

Once again, though, it comes down to the bullpens in a lot of these games. The Yankees do have an advantage in that department, as their bullpen had a lower walk rate, a lower ERA, FIP and xFIP, and seems to be deeper on talent.

Boston does bring the stronger, more reliable offense to the matchup and Eovaldi’s excellent control will limit New York’s best offensive ability, which is drawing walks. His 4.6 percent walk rate was one of the lowest in baseball among qualified starters. He also only allowed 15 home runs.

The Yankees don’t really generate a ton of offense without the walk and the long ball and those are the two main areas where Eovaldi excels. As a result, I do like the Red Sox on the 1st 5 innings line, but do worry a bit about their bullpen in the late innings. This one should be loaded with drama in the back half of the game and I’d like to stay away from that.

But, the Red Sox are worthy of a 1st 5 look with Eovaldi as the right man for the job against the New York offense.

Burke’s pick: Red Sox 1st 5, moneyline (+105 at BetMGM).

Cole projects for 6.4 strikeouts in this matchup, and you can find 7.5 lines out there at most books. The juice is shaded toward the Under, so the implied projection is 7.07, but there’s still just enough edge.

Rafael Devers’ home run odds look a bit off. Fenway is brutal on lefty power. Joey Gallo is also a fine bet against hitting a homer.

Carty’s picks: Cole Under 7.5 strikeouts (-150) and Devers Under 0.5 home runs (-525).