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Manchester City and Real Madrid begin their two-leg Champions League semifinal on Tuesday afternoon. City is a prohibitive -200 favorite on the three-way moneyline for the first leg, with Real Madrid coming back at +525 and the draw sitting with odds of +333. BetMGM has City at -225 to advance to the Final, with Madrid at +155. 

Madrid’s best path to success in this fixture is to sit back and allow City the lion’s share of possession. Manchester City faced a similar predicament in its quarterfinal against Atletico Madrid, but opted for a conservative approach and was able to ride out some bumpy moments en route to a 1-0 victory across the two matches. 

Real Madrid will offer more going forward than Atletico did, but because Madrid won’t press City and will likely just rely on a defensive posture and try to hit on the counterattack, this match should be pretty low-event, as City won’t want to risk making a mistake and giving Real Madrid’s clinical offense many chances on the counter. 

There are only so many paths this match could follow. A bet on the Under 2.5 (+110) or even a punt on the game ending 0-0 at +1150 are worth exploring. And if you’re into live-betting, taking a live Under if there’s an early goal is also a viable strategy for this encounter. 

The play: Manchester City-Real Madrid Under 2.5 goals.