Commercial Content, 21+

Let’s only hope that Friday’s NCAA Tournament action lives up to the Thursday card.

Two number-one seeds — Gonzaga and Arizona — exited the tournament Thursday after upsets at the hands of Arkansas and Houston, respectively.

Those two teams, along with Villanova and Duke, secured spots in the regional semifinals Saturday. Now, we have four more games to decide the second set of the Elite Eight.

But which betting markets should you target? Here are my best bets for today’s slate. Odds are courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

The Cyclones have played suffocating defense so far this tournament and, even though Miami’s offense is decent, this is a good spot to back a low-scoring game.

The Hurricanes sit only seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency of the remaining 12 teams in the tournament and don’t convert well from distance. The Hurricanes rank 147th nationally in three-point field-goal percentage while Iowa State defends the arc well, sitting ninth nationally in three-point field goal percentage allowed.

In fact, Iowa State has conceded only six successful three-point shots in two tournament games on 41 attempts. The one concern with the Cyclones is that it has allowed at least 20 free-throw attempts in both tournament games, but Miami isn’t converting well from the charity stripe either. Against USC and Auburn, the Hurricanes converted only 68 percent of its attempts from the line.

Now, even though Miami’s defense leaves little to be desired, this Iowa State offense is even more lackluster. The Big 12 representative is second-worst in adjusted offensive efficiency among tournament teams and 150th nationally. The Cyclones also don’t convert well from distance, evidenced by a 29 percent three-point percentage in their two tournament games. Expand that set to include Iowa State’s last six road or neutral-site games against tournament teams and bettors will find that the team is only shooting 24 percent from deep.

While this is the lowest total on the board Friday, I think there’s a reason behind it. Expect a low-scoring contest without many fireworks.

The caveat I’m adding here is that if Jaime Jaquez Jr. doesn’t go for the Bruins, this becomes more of a lean.

However, UCLA is the more balanced team and will end North Carolina’s run at the regional semifinal. The Bruins have the third-best adjusted efficiency margin of teams left in the tournament and own the fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com.

Even if Jaquez doesn’t go for the Bruins, there’s a gamescript out there where the defense comes to life and limits a mediocre North Carolina offense. The Tar Heels rank eighth out of the remaining 12 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency and should come back down to Earth slightly off their 40 percent hit rate from beyond the arc in their first two games.

Plus, I expect UCLA will see a lot of quality shots based on North Carolina’s inability to force turnovers. In two tournament games, the Tar Heels have produced an average turnover rate of 10.5 percent. On the flip-side, the Bruins have taken care of the ball and produced a nine percent turnover rate in its two games.

Finally, I think there’s an unquantifiable metric here which is that UCLA is simply more experienced. A national semifinal run last season armed this squad with postseason experience North Carolina is lacking.

For those reasons, expect head coach Mick Cronin’s side to find itself in the regional semifinal.