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By almost every metric, the Oakland Athletics are one of the worst offenses in baseball this season.
They rank last in OPS, 28th in WRC+, 27th in home runs and 29th in runs scored. Whether you like deeper numbers or back-of-the-baseball card stats, they’ll all tell you the same thing: Oakland is bad.
The A’s certainly don’t have the type of offense you want to back to go over the total, but sometimes the ugliest looking bets on the board are the ones that provide the most value. And in this case, that value is provided by Oakland’s starter on Wednesday, James Kaprielian.
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Kaprielian’s 3.71 ERA since July 1 (12 starts) is a lot of smoke and mirrors. Kaprielian has posted a 5.58 xFIP in that span, meaning that his ERA should be close to two runs higher.
Often times, pitchers that have wide gaps between their ERA and xFIP are able to wiggle off the hook with strikeouts or ground balls. Kaprielian does neither, as he ranks near the bottom of the league in K% and his ground-ball rate.
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The M’s offense isn’t going to pull up any trees, but it shouldn’t have too much trouble posting a crooked number against a below-average starting pitcher. Should they do that, all you’re asking the A’s to do is scratch out a run or two against Robbie Ray to get over the total.
Mariners vs. A’s pick
Mariners-A’s Over 7 (BetMGM)
