In most college football seasons, using “Vegas” to rank the top playoff contenders gives you a great read on true quality. This year there are two major problems mucking up that strategy.
- First, there’s been very little connectivity. Few national powers have played each other. Few have meaningful pathways between common opponents.
- Second, the pathways that do exist feature final scores that were way out of whack with market expectations.
Quick example. Both playoff No. 1 Alabama and No. 6 Georgia have road games at No. 3 LSU on the schedule. Georgia was -7 in Baton Rouge. Alabama will likely be around -14¹/₂ at kickoff Saturday (we’ll preview Tide/Tigers in tomorrow’s Tip). That suggests Alabama would be favored by about 7¹/₂ points over Georgia were they to face each other in the SEC Championship game or the final four playoff structure.
Unfortunately, Georgia was crushed by LSU, losing 36-16 with horrible stats. The market may be misreading either Georgia or LSU by several points. We won’t know for awhile. (Georgia did impress last week vs. respected Florida.)
Also, No. 4 Notre Dame is -9¹/₂ this week at Northwestern, while No. 5 Michigan was -15¹/₂ on that same field a few weeks ago. That suggests the market sees the Wolverines as six points better than the Irish. This is consistent with the season-opening meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame in South Bend that closed with Michigan laying 2¹/₂ points. Home field is usually worth about three points in betting lines.
Great, “Vegas” says Michigan should be well above Notre Dame in the playoff rankings rather than two spots behind. Unfortunately, we all remember that the Irish bullied the Wolverines in that head-to-head opener until the final minutes (with a quarterback who was subsequently benched!). And, Michigan had to rally to win at Northwestern, 20-17, missing the market by double digits.
At inception, VSiN was excited that our window into the world of sports betting markets would help shed light on whether or not the best teams were getting proper respect in college football and basketball championship tournaments. This season, it may turn into a real mess!
For now, we can tell you Alabama is clear of the field, and that Clemson is getting a high level of market respect, too. Michigan is seen as 5-6 points better than Notre Dame, but only about one point better than Ohio State (an early low-limit betting line at Caesars Palace currently shows OSU -2¹/₂ over Michigan in Columbus in a few weeks). LSU will be on the outside looking in unless it shocks Alabama on Saturday night.
Because “Vegas” doesn’t have any actual sway, hopefuls such as Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State probably will need Notre Dame to lose to Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse (at Yankee Stadium) or at USC.
