Did Mattress Mack bet smart this time?
You may have heard that Houston furniture magnate Jim McIngvale lost $1 million last week on the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship game at +300 on the money line.
After the World Series, VSiN warned you not to use “results-based” analysis when evaluating bets or selections. Sometimes smart bets lose anyway (if you properly double down on 11 in blackjack, you still might draw a lousy card). Sometimes dumb bets win (betting on any number in roulette is dumb mathematically, occasionally your lucky number does comes up). Did a bet make sense before a game was played? That’s the key question.
Mattress Mack made a few bets on the Astros where he wasn’t getting value. But, you have to admit that taking Tennessee +300 when most stores were only offering +260 or +270 sounds smart. Was he getting the best of it at that price?
Not really. He was splitting the difference with sportsbooks. Essentially, the spots taking his action were risking $3 million to win $1 million on a -320 or -330 favorite. Neither side was taking the worst of it. It was essentially a rich “gentlemen’s” bet with no vigorish.
So, if we leave it there, we could call it a smart bet. McIngvale improved his potential return by negotiating. The problem is, Mattress Mack explained his reasoning afterward. Mack told The Action Network “I got tricked into thinking Derrick Henry was invincible.”
Well, if he risked $1 million because he thought Derrick Henry was invincible, that’s a dumb bet. While Henry is terrific, Tennessee led New England only 14-13 until a last second pick-six. Then, the Titans were outgained 530-300 by Baltimore in a turnover-keyed upset.
There wasn’t any evidence that Henry could drive a road upset against team superior to New England all by himself. In the AFC title tilt, he was leading a team playing its fourth straight road game against a relatively rested host. And, note that Mack said “tricked into thinking,” which implies he was swayed by media hype. He didn’t say “I was so impressed with Henry I had to bet him.” He essentially blamed others for misleading him.
Two important lessons from this big loss for bettors:
- Don’t assume that big bets you read or hear about mean anything. Most stores don’t let sharps bet really big. Many have banned them entirely. If you’re hearing about a monster bet, it’s probably coming from a square. This will become a bigger issue if more business owners seek free publicity in this fashion.
- Don’t let announcer or pundit hype “trick” you into betting. TV networks are corporate partners of sports leagues, they’re prone to exaggerate the impact of marquee players for marketing purposes.
And, a piece of advice rather than a lesson: If you lose, man up and blame yourself!
