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For just the fifth time this baseball season, the Los Angeles Dodgers will close as an underdog on Wednesday night. Should the Dodgers close at their current price of +124, it would be the second-highest moneyline we’ve seen on Los Angeles this season (the Dodgers closed at +130 against Atlanta on June 24, per Action Labs).

Jacob deGrom is always the A-side of any pitching matchup he features in, but the Mets should feel pretty good about how this one sets up with journeyman Tyler Anderson on the other side of the tilt. Anderson has enjoyed a career resurgence with the Dodgers in 2022, but keeping up with deGrom is a monumental task right now.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+140) vs. LAD +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline: NYM (-155) vs. LAD (+125)

Total: Over 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (+105)

After missing the first four months of the season, deGrom has been outrageously good through five starts in 2022. Not only does the two-time Cy Young winner boast a 2.15 ERA and 0.55 WHIP through 29.1 innings of work, but his expected indicators actually suggest he deserves a better statline.

Predictive metrics like xFIP help us remove some of the noise out of a pitcher’s ERA, and deGrom’s xFIP currently sits at 1.24, meaning his ERA should be about a run lower than it currently is. That’s a scary notion for any lineup, even one that puts up the numbers that the Dodgers do, but it isn’t even the most impressive part of deGrom’s portfolio this season. That has to be the fact that he currently owns a 44.1% strikeout rate and has only walked two of the 103 batters he’s faced this campaign.

While deGrom does his best work by racking up strikeouts, Anderson is more of a craftsman. He won’t blow you away with his arsenal, but he is among the best pitchers in the MLB at inducing weak contact. The 32-year-old southpaw ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 85th percentile in barrel rate.

What’s more is that Anderson should benefit from a matchup with a Mets offense that has struggled with left-handed pitching this season. Although they performed admirably against Andrew Heaney last night, the Mets rank in the bottom third of the MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handers in 2022. 

With Anderson facing a favorable matchup and deGrom on the other side of the equation, backing the Under 3.5 runs in the First 5 Innings seems an ideal way to have action on this battle.

F5 Under 3.5 runs (-130 BetMGM)