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Michigan State got their lunch handed to them against Minnesota on Saturday. The Spartans were three-point underdogs at home last week and got absolutely plastered, 34-7, by the Golden Gophers.

Sparty is now 2-2 on the season and is getting seven points on the road against Maryland.

That right there should give you pause. A week after getting three points to Minnesota, Michigan State is now a seven-point dog against the Terps. 

Maryland is off to an impressive 3-1 start and looked feisty in a 34-27 at the Big House over the weekend, but Minnesota is a stronger team than the Terps, so the fact that the spread has jumped four points off of what we saw last weekend should be a signal to bettors that there’s value on the Spartans.

Stylistically, this matchup should suit the Spartans. Maryland ranks outside the top 100 in Power Success Rate Allowed and sits 90th in preventing rushing explosiveness. Michigan State’s rushing attack isn’t necessarily pulling up trees, but Sparty ranks 38th in rushing success rate and 47th in explosiveness on the ground. 

The Terps were able to hang with Michigan on Saturday, but they still allowed 6.1 yards per carry and over 200 yards on the ground to the Wolverines. The Spartans should be able to follow a similar formula to hang around in this contest.

And they’ll need to do just that since quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled out of the gates in 2022. The Junior out of Naperville, Ill., owns a 65.9 passing grade (per Pro Football Focus) and has logged four big-time throws against six turnover-worthy plays. Despite that, the Spartans are still a top-50 team when it comes to passing success rate.

On the other side of the ball, Taulia Tagovailoa has shown his usual highs and lows for the Terrapins. Tagovailoa is a dynamic player that can extend plays with his feet and make some scintillating throws, but he’s also prone to making ill-timed mistakes. Tagovailoa’s high-risk, high-reward style can go a long way to keeping Maryland in games against superior opponents. Still, it can also open the door for opportunistic defenses to flip a game in an instant. 

And importantly, Tagovailoa and top wide receiver Rakim Jarrett are both questionable to play on Saturday.

Money has already come in on Maryland to push this number to -7, but it would not be surprising to see some buy-back come on Sparty in a buy-low spot, making Michigan State +7 a bet you may want to make early in the week.

Michigan State +7 (FanDuel)