We are getting deep into the college and pro football seasons, and many teams have played seven games. That means we have a good idea what those teams are all about, even in the face of COVID-19 ramifications.

We know their strengths, their stats, their tendencies and how they might project the rest of the way based on their schedules. Theoretically, the handicapper would have a better chance against the bookmaker with this knowledge. However, it always helps to have a good database at your fingertips to be able to peg good and bad spots on each team’s schedule.

This week I have dug through the extensive information available on VSiN.com to uncover some trends I think might define some of this week’s college and pro games.

Michigan State (+24.5) at Michigan. Trend: Michigan State is 1-8 ATS (last three years) avenging a loss.

As I looked at this trend, my first thought was that Michigan State puts itself in revenge spots against teams it does not match up well with. That’s not a coincidence, as revenge becomes a motivational factor only when a team loses. Reversing the reasons for losing is not easy. For this week, the Spartans are massive underdogs. Michigan loves to beat up on Sparty, and after the season-opening loss to Rutgers, I am not sure how much resistance Michigan State is capable of putting up. MSU and new coach Mel Tucker scored a zero on my stability scale for 2020. This will be a long season for the team in East Lansing. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with the Spartans as underdogs of any magnitude.

Notre Dame (-19.5) at Georgia Tech. Trend: Notre Dame is 19-3 ATS (last 22 games) on the road in October.

A certain level of pressure and expectation comes with playing in front of the home folks in South Bend. I’ve gotten used to the Irish not meeting that expectation lately. In fact, it seems visitors to Notre Dame are the more excited and motivated team in those matchups. But when coach Brian Kelly’s team has hit the road in midseason games, it has been much more relaxed, and hence a better team. Saturday’s game at Pittsburgh was proof of that. After a 1-3 ATS start to the season in four home contests, the Irish tagged the Panthers 45-3 in their best game of the year, winning the yardage battle 434-162. They have one final October 2020 road chance to put on another show this week.

LSU (-2.5) at Auburn. Trend: LSU is 10-0-1 ATS (last 10 years) as an unranked team.

After falling out of the rankings a couple of weeks back, LSU responded Saturday with a dominant performance against respected South Carolina. The 52-24 win was the Tigers’ best game since last year’s national title contest. Was it a coincidence that it was LSU’s first game since going unranked? Well, if you consider this trend, I would certainly say not. It seems the Tigers respond well to perceived disrespect. Playing with a chip on the shoulder can be a huge boost for high-level athletes who sometimes need extra sources of motivation. Despite the big win last week, LSU is still not ranked and taking on underachieving Auburn. Beating a highly competitive rival also serves as a great motivator.

Jets (+19.5) at Chiefs. Trend: Jets are on an 0-8 ATS streak on the road vs. AFC West.

This trend is very simple yet explainable and effective. Heading out West represents the longest trips for the Jets each year and the most significant difference in weather. It’s natural to expect the performance to vary a bit. In this case it’s off significantly, as New York has lost eight straight ATS at AFC West foes. Typically I tend to stay away from these huge point-spread games, but this is the worst team in the league against the best, and the number actually seems low when compared with how the teams have been perceived. Kansas City has been a low-30s-level power rating consistently, while the Jets have been in the low teens. That’s essentially a 20-point difference without even factoring in home-field advantage or the trend mentioned above. I’m cool with laying the wood in this one.

Giants (+10.5) vs. Buccaneers. Trend: Giants are 3-13-1 ATS (last 17 games) at home vs. aggressive defenses forcing more than 1.7 turnovers per game.

The Giants have been a turnover machine in recent years, with Daniel Jones and Eli Manning assuming a lot of the responsibility. At home, the matchups against turnover-forcing defenses rarely go the G-Men’s way. The Bucs have forced 12 turnovers in their first seven games, a huge improvement from a year ago, when they fell victim to the turnover differential. Tampa Bay seems to be hitting its stride. It could be a mistake to go against that even in a “Monday Night Football” game with a double-digit point spread.