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In advance of today’s 15-game evening MLB slate, Anthony Dabbundo and Collin Whitchurch of The Action Network are here to share their best bets (video above).
For Dabbundo, he’s looking to the interleague matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates. For his bet, he’s backing the Tigers’ moneyline for the first five innings.
Dabbundo’s confidence in the Tigers stems from starting pitcher Tarik Skubal.
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Tigers vs. Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET)
“[Skubal] is generating about 22 percent more ground balls and really keeping the ball in the ballpark better than he ever has,” Dabbundo explains. “He’s also cut his walk rate in half – all positive signs that are repeatable.”
Plus, Dabbundo sees value in betting against Pirates starting pitcher Jose Quintana, who is getting by with some luck. Quintana has the lowest first-pitch strike rate and the lowest zone percentage of his career, meaning he’s trying to generate chases outside the zone.
Miguel Cabrera walks it off with a single on May 26. Getty ImagesAlthough that has generally worked to date, Dabbundo expects the Tigers will take advantage and win the first five innings.
Tigers vs. Pirates pick:
Tigers first-five moneyline (-140) — BetMGM
Guardians vs. Rangers (6:40 p.m. ET)
As for Whitchurch, he’s looking to the second game of a double-header between the Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers. For his bet, he’s backing the Rangers on the moneyline.
Whitchurch’s bet is largely a bet against Guardians starting pitcher Konnor Pilkington, who arrives at this start a massive regression candidate.
“[Pilkington] walks a ton of batters — 12.7 percent walk rate — and he also has an 81.5 percent left on base percentage, which is highly unsustainable,” Whitchurch says.
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Although Rangers starting pitcher Taylor Hearn isn’t someone Whitchurch recommends backing often — he owns a xERA north of 6.00 — he misses bats at an above-average rate.
Add in that the Guardians struggle to hit against left-handed pitchers while the Rangers tend to produce more favorite metrics against left-handed pitchers and Whitchurch believes it can steal the second game of the double-header and would back it at +130 or better.
Guardians vs. Rangers pick:
Rangers moneyline (+105) — Caesars
