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With the Blue Jays and Cardinals set to begin a two-game series Monday in St. Louis, Jules Posner of The Action Network is here to give his best bet (video above).

For Posner, he believes that the value rests with the hosts, which opened as -110 favorites but have slightly ticked up to -112.

The reasoning? The Cardinals play very solid baseball at home while the Blue Jays have struggled this season away from Toronto.

“The Jays offense is 23rd in wRC+ away from home against right-handed pitchers,” Posner says.

Additionally, the Blue Jays offense has a relatively low batting average in similar situations and a low isolated power percentage (.113). Given the Cardinals will be sending Miles Mikolas, who has a 1.81 ERA at home this season, Posner expects the Blue Jays offense will continue to struggle.

On the flip-side, this Cardinals offense has played very well at home. The Cardinals are fourth-best in Major League Baseball in team wRC+ at home against right-handed pitchers in the month of May, Against Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, who has an ERA north of 6.00 on the road this season, Posner expects the Cardinals offense will have its way.

Additionally, Posner likes one player prop in this contest: Brendan Donovan over 1.5 bases (+100 or better).

At the time of writing, Brendan Donovan was +160 to hit this number on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Donovan has played extremely well at home of late. He’s seven-of-13 at home over the last month and has two multi-hit games over his last six home games. Donovan also has four doubles in that timespan to pair with one home run.

Add in the aforementioned struggles of Berrios away from home and Posner likes the value on Donovan.

Cardinals -112, Brendan Donovan over 1.5 bases