A huge weekend in American League baseball begins Friday night when the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox. According to betting markets, those are four of the five teams most likely to win the AL this season.
Though we’re just past the 25% mark in the 2019 campaign, the playoff picture already is very well defined. Betting markets are saying the five American League qualifiers (three divisional winners and two wild cards) very likely will come from just six teams.
Here’s a quick peek at William Hill’s odds to win the AL for those six contenders, with money-line equivalents in parentheses:
Astros 12/5 (+240), Yankees 7/2 (+350), Red Sox 4/1 (+400), Twins 11/2 (+550), Rays 7/1 (+700), Indians 15/2 (+750).
If you want to bet the Yankees to win the AL, a $100 bet would win $350 (a sportsbook would return your initial $100 stake, then pay you $350 in profit). You can bet anything in that ratio if you prefer smaller or larger stakes.
Those six power teams are also well-represented in World Series championship odds.
Only the Dodgers and Cubs from the National League are currently seen as equal in stature to the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox. Here’s the latest from William Hill in that category:
Dodgers 5/1 (+500), Astros 11/2 (+550), Yankees 7/1 (+700), Cubs 8/1 (+800), Red Sox 17/2 (+850), Phillies 12/1 (+1200), Twins 12/1 (+1200), Rays 14/1 (+1400), Cardinals 15/1 (+1500), Brewers 15/1 (+1500), Indians 16/1 (+1600).
Do those odds mean the Dodgers would be favored heads-up over any AL entry? Not necessarily. The Dodgers currently look to have an easier playoff pathway to the Fall Classic, which is why there’s a smaller return for investors. Once the final two have been determined, it’s possible the Dodgers would be a short ‘dog to Houston — a healthy version of the Yankees — or Boston.
Handicappers would be smart to monitor any potential playoff preview in AL action from this point forward. Daily betting lines will give you a sense of how oddsmakers and sharps are rating starting pitchers and offenses.
We’ve mentioned in the past that sharps like to look at “road only” team stats to take ballpark influences out of the mix. Let’s do that quickly for the top AL threats:
- Road offense: The Astros, Red Sox, Rays, Yankees and Twins were the top AL teams in road on-base percentage at midweek. Houston and Minnesota have added a lot of pop. Boston has been hitting better recently. The potentially super-potent Yankees have been hampered by a part-time lineup all season. Cleveland is near the bottom of the league, which is why the Indians have been so disappointing.
- Road pitching: The Rays, Indians and Astros currently have the three best road ERAs in the AL. The Yankees and Twins are league average. The Red Sox trail the pack, but have fixed problems that plagued them out of the gate.
Enjoy this weekend’s potential playoff previews!
