Back on June 19, Justin Verlander of the Astros threw 122 pitches in a home loss to the Rays. Though he’s a veteran pitcher used to shouldering a heavy load, that’s a very high pitch count for 2018 baseball.

He hasn’t been the same in five starts since, carrying more vulnerable recent stats into Saturday night’s divisional showdown against the Angels.

Almost half of his full season home runs allowed, seven of 16, have come in those five outings (vs. Blue Jays, at Rays, vs. White Sox, vs. Athletics and vs. Tigers). The WHIP isn’t poor. But the H in WHIP is “hits.” Too many recent hits have been homers. And that’s with all five games having been played in good pitchers’ parks (four at home plus one at Tampa Bay).

Bettors laying big odds with Verlander are hurting, despite Houston’s seemingly benign 2-3 record. Just one unit won on each of the two victories, but money line losses of -390, -160, and -235 (almost eight units) for a net loss of six units.

Today from VSiN, a general tip that bettors should avoid expensive pitchers in starts following a pitch count well above their season standard … and, a specific tip that Verlander should probably be avoided (or faded) until he proves he has recovered from that 122-pitch odyssey with two good starts in a row. Bettors should take a look at pitch counts in every game to see when potential fatigue scenarios develop. Then, exploit them for as long as you can.