LAS VEGAS — For almost two decades, the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady combination has represented the surest thing the NFL has to offer. While the rest of the league exists in constant chaos, the Patriots consistently cash tickets.
A majority of bettors prefer to rely on favorites, and the Patriots have been consummate favorites — this week, next week and when the Super Bowl rolls around.
But there also are bettors who despise the same old thing and constantly search for The Next Big Thing, and that search has unveiled the Rams.
“We were taking bets on the Rams all summer,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said.
The Rams’ rise on the Super Bowl futures board, from 16/1 odds early in the summer to 11/4 (William Hill) this week, has knocked New England down a notch. Belichick and Brady are fading while voters at the polls (the betting windows) phase in Sean McVay and Jared Goff.
A week ago, the Westgate accepted a $50,000 bet on the Rams to win the Super Bowl at 7/2, creating more liability for the book and forcing another odds adjustment.
The Rams, who emerged from the weekend as the only 4-0 team in the league, rank No. 2 in scoring offense (35.0 ppg) and No. 5 in scoring defense (16.8). The perception is this team is the perfect storm of an innovative offensive coach, a rapidly maturing quarterback and a motley crew of defensive veterans led by dominant pass rusher Aaron Donald.
In a couple of months, things could change. In the NFL, that’s always the case. Football is a game of attrition, so injuries can turn seasons upside down, and teams sometimes peak too soon. A year ago, the Chiefs were a hot futures ticket, yet they went from blowing out the Patriots on opening night to failing to win a playoff game. In the end, the slow-starting Patriots were the Super Bowl favorites.
“You can always be the most dominant team in the regular season and have a bad game, and that’s what happened to the Rams last season in the playoffs against Atlanta,” said Erin Rynning, a Las Vegas professional bettor. “But the Rams are going to be tough to beat. On a neutral field, the Rams would be favored by a field goal over anybody, and they are definitely three points better than the Patriots.
“I’m not that high on the teams that would be No. 2 at this point. I don’t have the Chiefs rated that high because their defense is so bad.”
The Westgate lists the NFC as a 3½-point favorite over the AFC in the Super Bowl. Los Angeles is the even-money favorite in the NFC.
Over the weekend, this proposition was posted at Station Casinos: Will the Rams go 16-0 in the regular season? The “No” side is -1,300, and “Yes” is +800. In the past, the Patriots owned that prop.
The top AFC teams on the William Hill Super Bowl futures board are the Chiefs (15/2), Patriots (8/1), Jaguars (10/1), Ravens (18/1), Bengals (22/1) and Steelers (22/1). The value play appears to be the Ravens, who rank No. 2 in the league in total defense.
The NFC is a traffic jam behind the Rams, who are tailed in the distance by the Saints (8/1), Packers (14/1), Vikings (18/1), Eagles (18/1) and Bears (28/1).
The Westgate faces major Super Bowl futures liability on three teams, including the Rams. Strangely, Murray said, the other two teams are the Packers and Giants (100/1). Green Bay makes sense due to the threat always posed by Aaron Rodgers. The Giants have a mannequin at quarterback, Eli Manning, and it’s obvious their problems did not end with Ben McAdoo.
“People will just not stop betting the Giants, but we’re not concerned about the Giants,” Murray said. “We’re not really concerned about the Packers, either.”
Two years ago, the Rams were sacrificial lambs, finishing 4-12 while being ignored in their return to Los Angeles. Goff, the top pick in the draft, went 0-7 as a rookie starter. The firing of coach Jeff Fisher triggered the beginning of the turnaround.
Twelve days before his 31st birthday, McVay was hired by the Rams and became the youngest head coach in NFL history. His defensive coordinator is 71-year-old Wade Phillips.
“It looks like the formula to win in the NFL now is to get a hotshot young play-caller as offensive coordinator and a grizzled veteran as defensive coordinator,” Murray said. “McVay understands the math of it all and that gives him an advantage over the dinosaurs who don’t know what they’re doing. McVay’s offense is awesome.
“The Rams should coast through their division and get home-field advantage in the playoffs.”
As of today, that statement is the surest thing the NFL has to offer.
