We wanted to let NBA teams get a couple of games in before evaluating how “the market” is rating the league from top to bottom. Pro basketball lines are more volatile from day to day because of injuries, the fatigue impact of back-to-backs, and the relatively recent coaching tendency to rest starters on the second night.
That makes it tougher to pin down exactly how teams are rated in any given snapshot. But, it’s not hard to make a good-faith effort that is in the right neighborhood. If you study “full strength” lines over several days, you’ll likely get something like these, which were compiled in collaboration with VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel:
Estimated “market” power ratings
| Teams | Rate |
| Warriors | 88 |
| Rockets | 86 |
| Celtics, Raptors | 84 |
| 76ers, Jazz | 83 |
| Bucks, Pelicans, Trail Blazers | 82 |
| Pacers, Wizards, Nuggets, Spurs | 81 |
| Heat, Timberwolves | 80 |
| Hornets, Pistons | 79 |
| Lakers, Clippers, Thunder* | 78 |
| Nets, Mavericks, Grizzlies | 76 |
| Cavaliers, Magic | 75 |
| Knicks, Bulls, Suns | 74 |
| Hawks, Kings | 73 |
| * Thunder without Russell Westbrook |
Don’t be surprised if adjustments come quickly. Houston is tricky to evaluate because the Rockets had suspensions in their last game, after looking awful in their season opener versus New Orleans. Those Pelicans might be more dominant than the market was expecting given early returns.
LeBron James and the Lakers were overpriced out of the gate, failing to play to expectations versus Portland and Houston. It might take a while for the market to figure out how to mix “new enthusiasm in L.A.” with LeBron’s tendency to pace himself through a long season.
On the local front, there’s not much optimism. The Knicks are currently being pegged as one of the worst teams in the league with Kristaps Porzingis on the shelf. Using a standard three points for home-court advantage, the Knicks were priced just one point better than Atlanta last week (-4 at the Garden), then one point worse than the Nets (+4 at the Barclays Center). That’s way off “playoff caliber,” for those of you hoping for a run at the postseason.
What about finding “must-bet” games? As always, VSiN encourages you to build a set of “market” ratings like these so you know what you’re up against.
Also, plan in advance for fatigue spots and injuries. How much of an adjustment should you make on the scale for each star that gets hurt or takes a day for rest? How much will back-to-backs or other fatigue challenges hurt teams that lack depth? If you can stay in sync with rosters and the schedule, you’ll have a better shot at attacking any soft numbers that pop up.
