Logo

Commercial content. 21+. 

Action Network

Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more.

The NBA 3-Point Contest has become the highlight of the All-Star Weekend Saturday events. 

While that might have much to do with the downfall of the Dunk Contest as a compelling event, the 3-point contest is also tailor-made for bettors, as it’s not reliant on subjective judging and has actual measurable outcomes. 

With that in mind, let’s dive into the picks to get a sense of who has the best value for bettors. As a guiding post, here are the four factors we’re looking at when trying to get the best value. 

Consistency: You don’t want to go through a rack from which a player just can’t hit any. The moneyball helps, but you don’t want them having to catch up all on one rack. Having an even distribution matters. 

Volume: You do need to be able to get shots up quickly and efficiently. 

Right-corner efficiency: It’s the last rack, and as such, it’s where most players put the moneyball rack. 

Handoff efficiency: I’ve written about this before. This is not a catch-and-shoot event. It’s more akin to a handoff, taking the ball from a stationary position at waist-level and firing. Handoff efficiency is actually a lot better determinant than spot-up shooting. 

I’ve narrowed the field to three candidates I think have value in the event. Odds from BetMGM. 

Fred VanVleet (5/1)

VanVleet is a really interesting cross-section of our key metrics. Because of the way he’s used, he is a lot more consistent zone to zone and gets a lot of different 3-point looks. One of the reasons we went for Buddy Hield two years ago in a win was because Hield is a volume shooter who converts at a high percentage. 

VanVleet has the second-most made 3-pointers this season and at 40 percent is at a higher percentage than eight of the others in the top 10 in 3-point attempts. (The other being Patty Mills, who is eighth in makes.) 

From those corners, VanVleet is also liquid fire. He can put the moneyball rack on either side. That top-of-the-key rack will be an issue, but I feel better honestly having one rack where he doesn’t shoot well versus inconsistency from rack to rack. 


  Luke Kennard, Fred VanVleet, Desmond Bane Getty (3) Luke Kennard, Fred VanVleet, Desmond Bane Getty (3)

Desmond Bane (6/1)

He’s shooting 40 percent or better from every spot in the contest, with his lowest 40 percent from the left corner, where most players start. The right side likely moneyball rack, he’s 43 percent. Bane is also ninth in made 3’s, putting him in company with Mills and VanVleet, while shooting the same percentage as Mills (41.9). 

I will note that it’s rare for players in their first or second seasons to win the contest. Kyrie Irving, 2013, was the most recent player to win in his second season. 

It’s possible that playing in the Rising Stars Challenge on Friday night — after media availability and followed by social events — then participating in the 3-point contest the following night creates a drag. But objectively, Desmond Bane has a lot of value here. 

Luke Kennard (9/2)

Kennard ranks 22nd in made 3s this season, but his efficiency here is downright wild. He is shooting 43.6 percent or better from each of the rack zones, including 46.7 percent from that right corner moneyball zone. The consistency zone-to-zone is outstanding. 

Plus, Kennard is an Ohio kid, so he’s got a motivational edge with the competition in Cleveland. He’s not as good at handoffs, but his overall efficiency is just too great to be overlooked. 

If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Kennard, but I think the top three of Bane, Kennard, and VanVleet all have exceptional value, based on the number. 

Matt Moore handicaps the NBA for Action Network. 

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy