VSiN’s NBA expert drills into two teams that have had surprising results early in the season.

The betting market is notoriously slow at times to adjust its power rating of certain teams. One of the best examples I can remember is from the 2017-18 season. The Celtics had lost Kyrie Irving to injury, and the betting market turned on them immediately. Boston was stuck with a young core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier for the rest of the season, and the market had no respect for them whatsoever.

Well, the market was wrong. Boston ended the regular season 9-5-1 ATS and then went 11-3 ATS in the first 14 games of the postseason before losing to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals. That is a combined 20-8-1 ATS in 29 games after losing Irving. I went to that well regularly, but not often enough, and I wish I had come to this well in Cleveland more often this season.

After covering as 8.5-point underdogs in Milwaukee on Monday night, the Cavaliers improved to 8-0 ATS in their last eight games and 18-5-2 ATS (78.3 percent) on the season. That is the best cover rate in the league ahead of Golden State (18-6 ATS, 75.0 percent). For some reason, the market refuses to see Cleveland as a legitimate team and continues to power rate it as a bottom-dweller.

The Cavaliers are an elite defensive team, ranking fourth in efficiency (105.9), and their net rating (+1.5) is 13th in the league. This team, however, has closed as a favorite just twice all season. Until the betting market gives the Cavs the respect they deserve, bettors should continue to support Cleveland at the window, as this is literally the most underrated team in the league.

My dark-horse candidate to steal a playoff seed in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves were making me feel smart at the end of November. Minnesota was on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in which it had outscored opponents by 8.3 points every 100 possessions. The surprise was the level of play defensively. Over those 11 games, Minnesota allowed just 103.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and on the season it is eighth in defensive efficiency (106.7). The Timberwolves did not project to be an elite defensive team, and right now they are, but could something under the surface upend them?

In the three games they have played in December, Minnesota is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS and allowing 115.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Opponents have hit 40.6 percent of their attempts from deep over that three-game stretch, and that might not just be an aberration for a statistically elite perimeter defense.

Yes, the Timberwolves are second in opponent shooting, at 33.3 percent allowed, but like the Knicks of last season, some underlying numbers are troubling. Minnesota is allowing the seventh-highest rate of wide-open 3-point attempts this season, and over those three games opponents have hit 49.0 percent of those attempts. Allowing a regular rate of wide-open looks is not the calling card of an elite perimeter defense, and I would suspect the lull we have seen from the Timberwolves defensively this month will persist.