Though Kevin Durant will remain on the sideline, Klay Thompson is expected to return Friday for Game 4 of the NBA Finals matching the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors (ABC, 9 p.m.).
With both of those stars out, and post presence Kevon Looney lost for the playoffs with a collarbone injury, the Warriors were run over by the Raptors in Wednesday’s third game.
Toronto (+2¹/₂ after a late surge of sharp and square money hit the board when Thompson was ruled out) won 123-109 … scoring those points with only 82 shots from the floor. The Raptors nailed 17-of-38 3-pointers (44.7 %, equivalent to 67.1% on two-pointers) and added 20-of-21 on free throws.
Minutes after the final buzzer, oddsmakers initially posted a Game 4 point spread of Golden State -5, splitting the difference between “walking wounded” status for the Warriors and what might have been as high as -8 if both Durant and Thompson were able to return.
Thursday afternoon, Golden State announced Thompson likely will return, while Durant will sit for at least one more game. Global point spreads settled more firmly at Warriors -5.
It’s safe to assume the public wants to bet the two-time defending world champions in a zig-zag spot with their backs to the wall. And Nevada sports books in particular might need to lift their lines before tipoff to defend against that sentiment from “locals” who love betting the Warriors.
On the other end of the sharp/square spectrum: While pro bettors do respect the zig-zag dynamic, they also respect the intensity and confidence of this Toronto team. And, they know that Kawhi Leonard is the most important force of the floor because of what he brings to the areas of defense and rebounding. Sharps would love to get this dog at +6, and might settle for +5¹/₂ if that’s likely to be the apex.
What should bettors do regarding the series price? How could anyone even confidently calculate a series price without knowing Durant’s late-series status? Frankly, you can’t. You can estimate various scenarios. But, you can’t know for sure which scenario is going to play out until Durant’s destiny is determined.
We know Toronto currently leads the series 2-1 after regaining home-court advantage with Wednesday’s service break.
Golden State will likely close about 60 percent to win Friday’s fourth game. If Durant is able to return for Game 5 in Toronto, the Warriors probably would be about 52/48 to win as a short road favorite. If Durant is still out, Toronto would likely be 52/48, similar to the first two games of the series.
Obviously, later math is determined by player health. Who knows, Toronto may suffer a key injury too. For now, advantage Toronto in a series that’s already seen two service breaks. Still far from game, set and match.
