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The 2022 NBA Finals will resume on Friday night as the Boston Celtics host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 at TD Garden (9:00 p.m. ET, ABC). Boston has a 2-1 lead in the series after a 116-100 victory over Golden State on Wednesday night. The Celtics are now a -225 favorite to win the series, while the Warriors are underdogs with odds at +180.

If you like Boston to win the title but are not willing to lay the juice at 2-to-1, you might want to consider the Finals MVP market. I’ll explain why this futures market strongly correlates to the series’ winner and assess if any players still have value at this time.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: GS +3.5 (-105) vs. BOS -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline: GS (+140) vs. BOS (-165)

Total: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)

After three games, the BetMGM list for NBA Finals MVP is now down to 12 players:

One of my favorite bar trivia questions is to ask whether any NBA player received the Finals MVP award despite being on a losing team. It’s always a fun question, especially if you’re around people who aren’t your ardent NBA fans.

However, if you know that Jerry West was the inaugural recipient in 1969, you’re more than likely to know the answer. After all, it was the only time West won the award and, more importantly, the only time a player on the losing team received the honor.

Since then, the Finals MVP has been awarded 52 times, and each time the recipient was a player on the winning team. Thus, if you can pick who will win the Finals MVP award, your intuition will also point you to the winning team. It’s almost a guarantee that the honor will go to a player on the winning team because it’s easier to market the player and the award when both are associated with the victory.

Before we look at the current NBA Finals MVP odds, I have to be upfront in stating that my initial lean was that Boston would win this series. However, while I don’t have any pending futures tickets on the Celtics, I did cash a 12-to-1 exacta on Boston facing Golden State in the NBA Finals.

Boston has been the best team in the league since January, as it went 33-10 after an 18-21 start. The Celtics also finished the year ranked second in point differential (+7.3) despite winning 13 fewer games than the Phoenix Suns (64-18). As a result, I’m not interested in pivoting from my belief that the Celtics will win this series.

If you like the Celtics to win the title, you’ll get a much better price if you just backed Tatum to win the Finals MVP at +115. However, much like horse racing, I’m always trying to beat the favorite. And although Jayson Tatum is the face of the franchise, the numbers suggest that he hasn’t necessarily been the best player for the Celtics in this series.

He’s averaging 22 points per game which is second on the team behind Jaylen Brown’s 22.7 points. You might also be surprised to learn that according to NBA.com, the Celtics have a plus-minus of -2.3 points with Tatum on the court. However, when Brown’s on the court, Boston has a plus-minus of +6.3 points.

Tatum also shoots 33.9% from the floor compared to Brown at 42.9%. And if we evaluate both players on the consistency, I’ve got Brown ahead of Tatum. After all, Brown scored at least 17 points in all three games, while Tatum was merely a passenger with 12 points in Game 1 of Boston’s 120-108 victory.

Brown led all Celtics players with 27 points in Game 3, and with the Warriors perhaps more intent on slowing down Tatum, I think the former California product could see even more touches as the series progresses. Before Game 3, I took a small piece of Brown at 9-to-1 but even at +300, I think his price should be much closer to that of Tatum’s.

Should the Celtics hang another banner in the rafters, then maybe the Finals MVP voters will see that Brown is the more deserving candidate for the award than Tatum.

Jaylen Brown +300 (BetMGM)