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Once up 2-1 in the best of seven series, the Celtics have dropped two straight and are on the brink of elimination.
The harsh reality is that the Celtics have been mostly outplayed throughout this series.
If we tossed out the fourth quarter of Game 1 for both teams — which is increasingly looking like an outlier — the Celtics are being outscored in the second half by nine points per game on average (55.1 vs. 46.2 average points scored in the second half).
This is a far cry from the 52.8 points Boston is averaging in the first half of games during that same time frame.
Not coincidentally, in the only games that the Celtics won, they outscored the Warriors by double digits in the fourth quarter. See a trend?
Jayson Tatum Getty Images
NBA Finals Game 6: Warriors vs. Celtics odds (9 p.m. ET, ABC)
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Spread: GSW +3.5 (-110) vs. BOS -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: GSW (+145) vs. BOS (-170)
Total: Over 210 (-110) | Under 210 (-110)
NBA Finals Game 6: Warriors vs. Celtics prediction, picks and parlay
Piggybacking off of the numbers stated above, the first half is mostly a stalemate. The truth is that this game will start in the second half, regardless of how hot the Celtics come out of the gate.
The Celtics are dominating the first half at home, outscoring the Warriors by an average of 10 points. In Boston, with their backs against the wall, the Celtics will likely come out of the gate with profound urgency.
Stephen Curry MediaNews Group via Getty ImagesObviously, the Celtics could run into issues in the third quarter where the Warriors dominate. The expectation is that the Celtics jump out to an early lead and have a nice cushion going into the latter half of the game. However, the Warriors will look to avoid a Game 7 with every ounce of their being.
A same-game parlay of the Celtics to win the first half (-170) combined with the Warriors to win the third quarter comes in at +222 on FanDuel. This is an impeccable betting line that would have cashed in four of the five games so far in the NBA Finals.
The narrative certainly fits this angle tonight.
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NBA Same Game Parlay today
FanDuel +222: Celtics first half moneyline (-170) + Warriors third quarter moneyline (-105)
Warriors vs. Celtics pick
Celtics -1.5 first-half (-135) — BetMGM
NBA Finals Game 6 player prop bets
Jaylen Brown 4+ three-pointers made +220 (Bet365)
Jaylen Brown Getty ImagesHigh-volume shooter Jaylen Brown had the worst game of his career in Game 5. Is a rebound in order? Could be. The fewest shots he’s taken in a Finals game is five, and he’s averaging 7.2 threes attempted per game.
That kind of volume is excellent, and he has struggled to dribble the ball consistently without turning it over. Brown should be a spot-up shooter for most of this home game.
Marcus Smart ‘over’ 2.5 turnovers -140 (BetMGM)
Marcus Smart Getty ImagesMr. “I Got This” Marcus Smart constantly plays with irrational confidence, which results in countless turnovers. Smart is over this total in three of five NBA Finals games.
Furthermore, he is struggling to rack up assists. So far, he has not cashed his assists prop of 5.5 in any game since Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat. He might not be fully healthy, but that is not relevant to the actual bet. He has played at least 39 minutes in each of the last three games.
