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The first Game 4s of the second round of the NBA playoffs tip off Sunday with two series locked into 2-1 battles. The Phoenix Suns face the Dallas Mavericks at 3:30 p.m. ET and the Philadelphia 76ers host the Miami Heat at 8 p.m. ET.
We have the best NBA player prop bets for Sunday’s crucial games, with the Mavericks and 76ers hoping to avoid falling into 3-1 deficits.
With a win on Sunday, the 76ers might be able to take control of their series now that the return of Joel Embiid has shown to give the Heat massive issues.
NBA player prop best bets and predictions
Suns vs. Mavericks Game 4 (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
- Jalen Brunson ‘over’ 3.5 assists +125 (DraftKings)
Role players typically play better at home than they do on the road. As evidenced by Brunson’s five assists and 28 points in Game 3, Brunson is obviously more comfortable at home. Dating back to the regular season, Brunson has hit the ‘over’ 3.5 assists in five consecutive games.
- Chris Paul ‘over’ 8.5 assists +104 (FanDuel)
Have to give a shoutout to Yahoo Sports’ Ariel Epstein for this play. In my interview with her last week, she said she is monitoring Chris Paul’s assists total going forward. While Paul has been ‘under’ this number in all three games this series, he had 14, 14, and 11 assists in their prior three matchups.
Chris Paul Getty ImagesHeat vs. 76ers Game 4 (8 p.m., TNT)
- Joel Embiid ‘over’ 38.5 points + rebounds + assists -130 (DraftKings)Embiid 2+ 3-pointers +390 (FanDuel)
Backing Embiid across the board for tonight’s big game. At home, Embiid had just 18 points in his last outing, but I would expect that he needs a big game to keep the 76ers in a position to win this game. He is +750 to score 35+ tonight on FanDuel which is a very appetizing betting spot as well.
Joel Embiid Getty Images- P.J. Tucker ‘over’ 1.5 3-pointers +175 (PointsBet)
This is slightly contradictory to my previous point about role players not performing well on the road. However, this case is different as P.J. Tucker’s only role on offense is to sit in the corner and shoot 3s. As a veteran, the road shouldn’t affect him that much.
Back in 2020, Draymond Green called Tucker the best corner 3-point shooter in NBA history. Per NBC Sports, Tucker made 719 corner 3s at a 39.2% clip from 2017 to 2020. He has the same role here as he did for the Heat.
