It didn’t qualify for national attention on Christmas Day. But Thursday night’s NBA meeting between the Knicks and the Nets at Barclays Center will be a holiday event for New Yorkers.
Neither team had the start to the 2019-20 season that it wanted. Recent form has shown the Knicks playing more competitively (especially vs. non-contenders) since a coaching change, and the Nets maintaining playoff position despite long absences from Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert.
Knicks
They return from Christmas break with a 7-24 straight up record, 15-16 against the spread.
Since the coaching transition from David Fizdale to Mike Miller, the Knicks are 5-4 ATS, though an early honeymoon may have ended with blowout losses to Miami and Milwaukee.
In analytics stats that carry a lot of weight with sharps, the Knicks rank 28th in offensive efficiency (scoring adjusted for pace) and 27th in defensive efficiency. Even with an improved attitude, lack of high-impact talent will remain an issue through the rest of the season.
Remember to study box scores for rebounding stats. As we reported during the initial surge under Miller, the Knicks shine on the glass at peak intensity. For the season, they’re league average in rebound rate — a clear strength amongst many weaknesses.
Betting approach: Consider the Knicks at value prices vs. non-contenders, or against opponents that may be going at three-quarter speed because of fatigue or load management. Fade them vs. quality teams that care about results. Fade them hard if vs. everyone if attitude sours again.
Nets
If the playoffs started today, the Nets would be the No. 7 seed in the Eastern brackets despite having been decimated by injuries. They are 16-13 straight up and against the spread, though they have benefited from playing a soft schedule. Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings at USA Today grade it at 26th out of 30 NBA teams.
The current No. 8 seed, Orlando, is playing only .433 ball, meaning the Nets probably would make the playoffs if they played shorthanded all season!
Brooklyn has been slightly better on defense than offense after adjusting for tempo. The Nets rank 14th in defensive efficiency, 18th in offensive efficiency.
Better days are ahead if Irving and LeVert can get back in uniform. But the Nets not seen by betting markets as a threat to scare anyone this postseason. William Hill currently has the Nets 60/1 to win the Eastern Conference, 200/1 to win the NBA title.
An interesting market note: The Nets look to be overrated when Irving is on the floor, underrated when he isn’t. Brooklyn went just 4-7 ATS before Irving was shelved with a bum shoulder. The Nets are 12-6 ATS since … including an 8-3 ATS mark their last 11 games.
Irving’s return could improve the Nets straight up, but hurt them ATS if oddsmakers make too large an adjustment.
Betting approach: Consider the Nets at home, where they’re 7-1 ATS their last eight tries. Monitor markets when Irving returns.
