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Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the New England Patriots. Be sure to check out our New Orleans Saints preview, published yesterday.
New England Patriots (+4000 to win Super Bowl,BetMGM)
2021 record: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East
After missing the postseason in 2020, the New England Patriots returned to the playoffs last season, thanks to the play of their rookie quarterback Mac Jones.
However, a 47-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round revealed that the Patriots still have quite a bit of work to get back to the top of the AFC. This season should be an intriguing campaign, as Jones enters his second year in the league.
This is a big season in New England with it being Year 2 AB (After Brady). Do the Patriots have enough talent to compete in an improving division? Let’s find out.
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Patriots offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Notable free agency departures include star cornerback J.C. Jackson (82.6 PFF grade) and offensive lineman Ted Karras (72.2 PFF grade).
- Added LB Mack Wilson (75.3 PFF grade) and WR DeVante Parker (72.8 PFF grade) via trade.
- Signed free agent wide receiver Ty Montgomery (72.8 PFF grade) and center James Ferentz (48.8 PFF grade).
- Drafted UT-Chattanooga OL Cole Strange (No. 29), Baylor WR Tyquan Thornton (No. 50), Houston CB Marcus Jones (No. 85), Arizona State CB Jack Jones (No. 121), South Dakota State RB Pierre Strong (No. 127), Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe (No. 137), South Carolina RB Kevin Harris (No. 183), NW Missouri State DT Sam Roberts (No. 200), LSU center Chasen Hines (No. 210), and Michigan OT Andrew Stueber (No. 245).
Bill Belichick Getty ImagesNew England Patriots 2022 schedule
Week 1: @ Dolphins
Week 2: @ Steelers
Week 3: vs. Ravens
Week 4: @ Packers
Week 5: vs. Lions
Week 6: @ Browns (Monday)
Week 7: vs. Bears
Week 8: @ Jets
Week 9: vs. Colts
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs. Jets
Week 12: @ Vikings (Thanksgiving)
Week 13: vs. Bills (Thursday)
Week 14: @ Cardinals (Monday)
Week 15: @ Raiders
Week 16: vs. Bengals
Week 17: vs. Dolphins
Week 18: @ Bills
NFL betting lines: Patriots win total
O/U 8.5 wins (FanDuel)
The Pats won 10 games a year ago, but oddsmakers set their win total at 8.5 for this season. Jones will work under a different offensive coordinator following Josh McDaniels’ departure to Las Vegas. And in true Bill Belichick fashion, the Patriots are noncommittal as to who is taking over play-calling duties for McDaniels.
Instead, the Patriots are said to be taking a more collaborative approach, with the pairing of Matt Patricia serving as a senior football advisor/offensive line coach, and Joe Judge as the offensive assistant/quarterbacks coach.
Matt Patricia Boston Globe via Getty ImagesWhat’s interesting is that despite Judge and Patricia being former head coaches, neither has much experience on the offensive side of the ball. Patricia’s background was as a defensive coordinator with the Patriots from 2012-2017, while Judge was their special teams coordinator from 2015-2019.
If the Patriots struggle early, you can be sure that discussions about who is in charge of the offense will continue throughout the season.
New England is in a much more competitive division, given the strides that the Dolphins made in the offseason. When it’s all said and done, the Patriots might be the third-best team in the AFC East behind the Bills and the Dolphins. For that reason, I lean under 8.5 wins.
Patriots O/U 8.5 Wins: The Pick
Lean: Under 8.5 wins
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Mac Jones O/U 23.5 passing touchdowns (-115, FanDuel)
Despite the questions surrounding who runs the Patriots’ offense, I still like Jones to go over his passing touchdown prop.
My reasoning is based on Jones’s character and competitiveness, as he returned for his second year in tremendous shape.
Mac Jones Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesJones’s girlfriend, Sophie Scott, shared the quarterback’s physical transformation on her Instagram. When he was at the Pro Bowl, Jones commented on his plans to improve his diet, and he’s done precisely that.
Jones’s accomplishment of his offseason goal shows the commitment of a quarterback looking to improve. The addition of DeVante Parker at wide receiver should also provide a boost to the offense.
I expect the Patriots to let Jones air it out more this season as they continue their evaluation of whether he’s indeed the quarterback of their future. He should eclipse his modest touchdown total.
