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Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in theNational Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans Saints (+4000 to win the Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 Record: 9-8 (2nd in NFC South)
Headlining the Saints’ start to this season are a new head coach and a (presumably) healthy quarterback.
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After tearing his ACL in Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jameis Winston returns to lead the Saints at quarterback. Meanwhile, Dennis Allen, who served as Raiders head coach from 2012 to 2014, takes over the top job in the Big Easy after Sean Payton’s departure in February. Allen is largely known for his defensive prowess and previously worked with the Saints as their defensive coordinator.
Across the past two seasons, Allen’s defenses have ranked top-10 in both yards per game and opponent points. In his first season as head coach, Allen will hope to see the Saints offense rise to the level of its defense. Last season, the Saints ranked 23rd in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com.
Saints offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Hired defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach
- Re-signed QB Jameis Winston and signed QB Andy Dalton
- Drafted Ohio State WR Chris Olave (No. 11), Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning (No. 19), Tennessee CB Alontae Taylor (No. 49), Appalachian State LB D’Marco Jackson (No. 161), Air Force DT Jordan Jackson (No. 194)
- Signed safeties Justin Evans, Marcus Maye and Daniel Sorenson, DE’s Taco Charlton and Kentavius Street, DT Jaleel Johnson, TE J.P. Holtz
Saints 2022 Schedule
Week 1: at Atlanta Falcons
Week 2: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: at Carolina Panthers
Week 4: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 5: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 6: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 7: at Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 9: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 10: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Week 12: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 13: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 16: at Cleveland Browns
Week 17: at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
NFL Betting Lines: Saints Win Total O/U
8.5 Wins (FanDuel)
Interestingly, oddsmakers have the under juiced here, but I believe there’s a case for optimism with the Saints.
First, they get a bonus home game in Allen’s first season after going 3-5 at home last year. A fully healthy Winston should help improve on that record for New Orleans, which gets three home games against teams I have projected to finish last in their respective divisions.
Plus, in addition to getting Winston back, the Saints will also see the return of top receiver Michael Thomas, who missed the entire 2021 season with an ankle injury. Both those players should help boost the Saints’ offense.
It’s also worth noting that even without Winston and Thomas, New Orleans finished 5-2 in the division last year. Given my belief the Panthers and Falcons are markedly worse this season, expect Allen to notch at least four division wins.
If that holds true, the Saints only need to go 5-6 in their remaining games to cash the over. Six of those 11 non-divisional games come at home, so I’m optimistic New Orleans will be able to take advantage.
If there’s one concern with the Saints, it’s that they play 10 games against teams that ranked 16th or better last year in defensive DVOA last season. Any slight failure by their offense to improve on last year’s production could see New Orleans struggle in those games.
Even so, I believe there is value in getting the Saints over 8.5 wins at plus money. I’m happy to take a shot with them at +105.
Saints O/U 8.5 Wins: The Pick
Over 8.5 Wins (+105)
Expert best bets, futures, props
Saints to Make the Playoffs – “Yes” (+118) — FanDuel
It’s always scary placing this much confidence in a new head coach, but I believe New Orleans is primed for a run to the postseason.
This year, they play nine games against teams that ranked below them in total DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com. Although circumstances are almost certainly going to change year-over-year, the changes from their 2022-23 opponents lead me to believe New Orleans is winning 11 games, assuming they stay relatively healthy.
Plus, my colleague Sean Koerner projects the Saints as having the 11th-easiest schedule in the league. Again, a lot of improvements have to be made year-over-year to reach the playoffs, but that’s certainly another encouraging sign.
Lastly, I don’t think the mountain is actually that big to climb for this offense. Rember, only two seasons ago, New Orleans ranked fourth in the league in offensive DVOA and still have a lot of key skill position players – Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Tre’Quan Smith to name a few.
Assuming Winston can avoid mistakes like he did last year, expect positive regression on that side of the ball, and for the Saints’ underrated defense to lead them into the postseason.
