The NFL season is upon us, and bettors may think they have an exciting way to make money and beat the spread. Don’t fall for it. If you are interested in investing and turning a profit by wagering on games, keep reading. If you only want to bet on your favorite team, stop — or donate the money instead to your favorite charity.
NFL games are hard to predict. However, there are a few investing rules that you must consider before making any wager.
Don’t let the previous week’s performance — good or bad — influence your wager for the current week. Be in the moment and don’t allow the past to influence the future. The NFL is all about matchups — one team might not match up well against another. In the next week, it might match up well, so don’t jump to any conclusions.
Bad offensive lines don’t travel well. And don’t just examine the sacks allowed by the road team. Quarterbacks who get hit often, sack or no sack, are more prone to make mistakes on the road. If a lousy offensive line travels to face a great defensive line, the matchup favors the home team.
September games are an extension of the preseason. Because of the new collective bargaining agreement, teams don’t have enough padded practices to prepare for the rigors of the season. September results can mislead people into thinking a mediocre team is excellent. Last year, Cincinnati had four wins after five games by October. They finished with six victories.
Weather matters early in the season, not late. Humidity usually is the hardest thing to prepare for and cannot be simulated in practice. Teams that deal with humidity each day, like Tampa Bay and Miami, will win or cover games early in the season not because they are the better team but because they are the better-conditioned club. Miami opens with Baltimore and New England at home, which will be tough games for the visitors.
Study field-goal kickers and head coaches’ ability to manage the game. With the margin three or less in so many games, you must know when you invest based on how a team’s kicker performs and how its coach handles the game. These are two critical areas to know inside-out.
The most important stat is First Half Point Differential. Know who is dominating. In the past five years, the top teams have had a chance to become Super Bowl champions.
Don’t allow the players from the team to influence your decision one way or another. You must block out that noise and focus on the numbers. (Watching VSiN is a good start.)
Best of luck.
