For as different as this NFL season has been due to the impact of COVID-19, the first two weeks of the playoffs have generally followed the trends of recent years. Over the past two weeks, I have compiled trends from the wild-card and divisional rounds of recent NFL playoffs. In the wild-card round, it was obvious going in that road teams had held an edge of late. They did so again in 2021. In the divisional round, I explained that hosts typically won three of the four games. That’s exactly what happened last weekend.
Up next are the conference championships, and the most noticeable factor when analyzing recent conference title games is that besides the road sweep two years ago, home teams have won every game outright since 2013. They also own an ATS edge of 10-4 during that seven-year stretch. Last year’s games were decided by double digits, re-establishing the trend that was thwarted in 2019, when the previous 10-game run by the hosts produced average scores of 33.3-16.
Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems from recent conference championship games. When applicable, I will apply the key information to this year’s matchups.
Patrick Mahomes (left) and Aaron Rodgers could both return to the Super Bowl with conference championship wins this weekend. Getty Images (2)- The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but five of the last 38 conference championship games. The most recent team to fail to do that was New England three years ago, when it held off Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point favorite.
- Hosts are on a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS run, though the Rams and Patriots (Tom Brady) won outright and ATS on the road two years ago. It’s evident that home-field advantage has proven important in recent years.
- Hosts favored by fewer than seven points are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in their past 17 tries. Those games have also gone Over the total at an 11-5-1 rate. These line-range trends figure to be the most applicable to this week’s games.
- The past 17 times a home team has won and covered the point spread, that game has also gone Over the total at a 13-4 rate.
- Home teams are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 AFC title games and 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS in their last 16 NFC championships.
- No. 1 seeds have been the host teams in 41 of the last 56 conference championship games and have gone 28-13 SU and 21-20 ATS in those games. Green Bay and Kansas City are the No. 1 seeds for 2021.
- Since 1993, Over the total is 33-22-1 in conference championships. However, a stark difference exists between conferences, as the past nine AFC games are 6-3 to the Under while NFC contests are on a 13-5-1 Over surge. Both games last year surged over their posted totals by more than a touchdown.
- The last eight games with totals in the 50s have seen three Overs and five Unders. Barring changing weather, both games Sunday figure to be in that category.
