LAS VEGAS — When handicapping the NFL preseason, angles are far more important than analytics. Strange games are played in August, when the motivation for coaches is the biggest question mark and backup quarterbacks cash most tickets.
For the most part, preseason games are not about any past statistics or the star quarterbacks, so forget about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and focus elsewhere. This is a different world.
The first angle is already in action and it involves Vic Fangio, the new coach of the Broncos, who kick off the NFL’s return by facing the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, on Thursday. The opening line at William Hill sportsbooks has flipped from Atlanta -1 to Denver -2½.
“We like Denver in the game,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “It’s Fangio’s first game, and the Broncos have new quarterbacks. It doesn’t have any meaning at all for Atlanta.”
Preseason analysis is often simplistic. For Fangio, the former Chicago Bears defensive coordinator, his first impression means something. On the flip side, Falcons coach Dan Quinn is 0-8 in the past two preseasons.
Joe Flacco, the Broncos’ new starting quarterback, might make a cameo appearance at most. Denver’s ability to move the ball will fall to Drew Lock, a rookie second-round pick, veteran Kevin Hogan and undrafted free agent Brett Rypien. Lock and Hogan are competing for the No. 2 job while Rypien is fighting for a roster spot.
Early money is showing on the Broncos. Sharp money is a reality in the preseason, but on a relative scale. The wagering limits at a majority of books are around $2,000 for sides and $1,000 for totals, meaning bookmakers are timidly tapping the brakes. If bettors were always losing, the limits would not be so low.
“You can win,” Murray said. “I think you have a better chance of winning in preseason than in the regular season because the regular-season market is so good and every line is about where it should be, for the most part.”
The playbook to winning in the preseason starts with the coaches — some are transparent with revealing game-plan information and some are in it to win it more than others.
Bill Belichick is the king on the first Sunday in February, but in August it’s a different story. Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 13-0 in the past three preseasons and 18-3 since 2014. The other best bet-on coaches from preseasons past are Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer (17-4 straight up, 14-7 against the spread) and Seattle’s Pete Carroll (32-21 SU, 35-17-1 ATS).
Carroll threw bettors a curveball last year, however, by going 0-4. Dallas’ Jason Garrett also finished 0-4 and is a strong go-against coach (12-21 SU, 10-20-3 ATS).
“Bet against the Rams in the preseason because they are not really trying to win,” said Michael Lombardi, VSiN analyst and former NFL executive. “Avoid teams that are just trying to get through it.”
The Rams are 4-4 in two preseasons with coach Sean McVay, who has said starting running back Todd Gurley will be limited in August because of knee issues.
Quarterback rotations are just as crucial to handicap. Green Bay has weak backups — DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle and rookie Manny Wilkins — to Rodgers. Oakland’s Derek Carr has below-average backups in Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. New England’s situation behind Brady is a little more optimistic with veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Jarrett Stidham.
“You want a guy who’s been in the system,” Lombardi said. “Hoyer will probably be able to move the ball a little bit.”
Study depth charts (Ourlads.com is a comprehensive resource) to grade quarterbacks and other positions. Offensive-line depth is difficult for most handicappers to quantify, but Lombardi advised to look for veteran backups and downgrade lines with too many rookie free agents.
“If you want to bet on teams in preseason, make sure they’ve got 10 or 12 really good offensive linemen,” Lombardi said. “Once the first-team offensive line goes out, all hell breaks loose and then it’s just hit or miss at that point and you’re just hoping a guy makes a play here or there.”
Lombardi, who’s positive about Buffalo’s offensive line, said, “The Bills will probably be respectable with Matt Barkley as the backup QB.”
Most games are won and lost by the second- and third-string quarterbacks, so consider first-half bets in some cases. After halftime, when the best players see fewer snaps, betting results can be as random as the spin of a roulette wheel.
The first two weeks of the preseason are more of a mystery. Most teams play to win in Week 3, when the so-called dress rehearsals get more realistic to what is seen in the regular season.
Also, monitor the line moves — some numbers will move as much as three to five points based on smart money, insightful information and steam chasers — and do not obsess as much about 3-point lines, because the field-goal spread is not as key in the preseason when coaches want to avoid overtime.
Finally, ignore critics who say preseason wagering is only for degenerates. There are plenty of sharp ways to cash tickets.
