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Dave Blezow makes his NFL Divisional Round picks for Sunday’s games.All lines courtesy of BetMGM.

With due respect to Jones vs. Jalen Hurts and Mahomes vs. Trevor Lawrence, this is the quarterback matchup I most want to watch this weekend: Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen.

Both teams are a bit fortunate to still be playing, as the Bengals used a 98-yard return of a fumbled sneak by the Ravens’ backup quarterback, and the Bills were trailing in the second half to the Dolphins’ third-string quarterback.

Looking at the matchup, I don’t see as much difference between the teams as the spread indicates. Though the Bills hold some statistical edges, this Bengals collection and coaches have gotten it done together, posting a 4-1 postseason record including 3-0 on the road with a near-miss vs. the Rams in the Super Bowl. 

All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Though this total looks a bit low, I’m going to try the Under for two reasons. Injuries on the Cincinnati offensive line figure to make things more difficult on Burrow, and the Orchard Park forecast — around 35 degrees, winds 9-16 mph and a couple of inches of snow — could slow things down little.

Bills, 24-20

For a game that features two teams that played last week, there’s actually a situational edge to embrace here. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks in the 4:30 Saturday start. Cowboys-Bucs on Monday night kicked off almost 52 hours later, which is significant when you add in the cross-country travel, though Dallas had a pretty easy time with Tampa Bay.

Last year’s playoff meeting in Arlington, Texas, was a memorable one as the 49ers took a 23-7 lead in the third quarter and had to hold on for a 23-17 victory as Dak Prescott was bumped by the umpire who was spotting the ball as the final second ticked off.

This is a different 49ers team now, with Brock Purdy seemingly a better fit in the offensive scheme than Jimmy Garoppolo was. The major upgrade is the arrival of Christian McCaffrey, a home-run hitter both running and catching the ball who sends Deebo Samuel back to wide receiver to wreak his havoc.

The Cowboys can score on San Francisco, but they have a major problem at kicker, and the quick turnaround and long trip will hurt them defensively. 

49ers, 28-21

Last week: 8-4 overall; 4-2 sides and 4-2 totals
Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 10-9 in 2022-23).